Flash Flood Guidance
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000
AWUS01 KWNH 261826
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270024-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0241
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS AND MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 261824Z - 270024Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS KS, WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO PORTIONS OF MO WITH TIME.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES TO 2" COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATING SOILS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE MIDDLE OF A FORMIDABLE
INSTABILITY POOL, WITH 5000 J/KG MLCAPE PER THE 17Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS.  THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION AND SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF A THERMAL BOUNDARY WHICH
IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO.  INFLOW AT 850
HPA HAS BEEN BACKING AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 30 KTS FEEDING INTO THE REGION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE SURGING UPWARD, AND NEAR 1.5" PER AN 18Z TOPEKA KS
SOUNDING.

THE MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
2-4" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  THE THUNDERSTORM AREA
SHOULD KNOCK THE THERMAL BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD AS IT
GENERALLY MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST.  LESS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AT 30 KTS WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE EAST AT 30 KTS, PARALLEL TO
THE MLCAPE GRADIENT AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS LINES.  CELL
MERGERS ARE POSSIBLE.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO
SURGE ABOVE 1.75" AND A NEARBY SOURCE FOR LIFT, HOURLY RAIN RATES
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 2", THOUGH THEY COULD BE HIGHER IN AREAS WHERE
CELL MERGERS OCCUR.  SHORT PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOWEST IN NORTHEAST KS
DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.  FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40399555 40139273 38809221 37969301 37479586
            37009793 37369914 38789877 39939733



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