Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 221829
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..SMITH.. 05/22/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
D2/SAT PERIOD WILL ADVANCE EWD TO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL LIKEWISE MOVE EWD TO
THE MS VALLEY REGION BY SAT EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
MAINE AND ADJACENT CANADIAN PROVINCES MOVES OFFSHORE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
E-CNTRL U.S. SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHILE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN OVER ERN CO BY SAT EVENING...WHILE A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW STRETCHES SWD ACROSS ERN NM. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CONUS ON D2/SAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX BEHIND THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH
A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE SAT AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM/FAR W TX. DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO THE SFC. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF
15-20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WILL COMBINE
WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE TO ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST
WINDS AND MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A
CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WHILE ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE MET ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM SAT
AFTERNOON...PRIOR RAINFALL HAS RENDERED FUELS UNRECEPTIVE FOR THIS
REGION...AND THEREFORE THE ELEVATED AREA DOES NOT INCLUDE ERN NM.

...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR D2/SAT ACROSS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING SRN VT/NH...MUCH OF MA...AND FAR NRN CT
WHERE A RELATIVE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
DRY FINE FUELS. BEHIND AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE...A DRY LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. ON D2/SAT. AN
ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE WLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE
ELEVATED AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS SAT AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS BELOW 30 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF STRONGER EXPECTED SFC WINDS
PRECLUDES A CRITICAL DELINEATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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