Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 281734
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS...

A MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO REMOVE THE ELEVATED RISK AREA FROM
PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
THAT MAY OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING. STRONG WINDS
WILL EXTEND E OF THIS AREA TOWARDS THE LOWER ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST
TX...BUT LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ANTECEDENT
PRECIPITATION WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...THE
CRITICAL RISK FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...AND THE ELEVATED RISK FOR MUCH OF SRN/E-CNTRL NM...ARE ON
TRACK.

..ROGERS.. 04/28/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0316 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY
A VIGOROUS...SOUTHWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON/NEVADA
UPSTREAM OF AN EJECTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS.  ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AS A RESULT OF THE MID/UPPER
PATTERN...WHILE RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IN WEST TEXAS WILL
DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE
DAY...FOSTERING A FAVORABLE SURFACE GRADIENT FOR STRONG WINDS IN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND ELEVATING THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THERE.

...SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO BY MIDDAY/ WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST OF THIS LOW...A TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  TO THE WEST OF THIS
TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING 30 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL
EXIST IN TANDEM WITH 5-15 PERCENT MINIMUM RH...SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  FUELS...HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
GREENUP HAS OCCURRED.  FARTHER NORTH...MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY TEMPER THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.  THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
AND DRY FUELS RESIDES IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND A CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN MADE THERE TO ADDRESS
THIS THREAT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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