Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 071836
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

...SRN CA...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD.
THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND MIN RH DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS. SOME ISOLATED SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE
POSSIBLE. CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF SRN CA BUT FUELS SOUTH OF LA COUNTY WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...SRN PLAINS...
STRONG NWLY FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35
MPH. NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN
A DRY...POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING WITH MIN
RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER TEENS /ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK/ TO MID 20S
/ALONG THE COASTAL BEND/. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AND CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM NW TX SEWD TO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAIN IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A CRITICAL THREAT AREA WITH
THIS FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 02/07/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0306 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE ON D1/SUN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON D2/MON WITH VERY FEW OVERALL CHANGES.  AT
THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...YIELDING ANOTHER DAY OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH A
DRY/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY
WARM/DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.  THE PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO LED TO CONTINUED DRYING/CURING OF FUELS IN THE
REGION...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FUELS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FUEL STATES...GUSTY NE WINDS /UP
TO 40 MPH/...LOW RH VALUES...AND NEAR 85F AFTERNOON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  SURROUNDING THIS CRITICAL AREA...AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST DUE TO SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FUELS FOR
FIRE GROWTH IN AN OTHERWISE CRITICAL ATMOSPHERIC FIRE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL SUPPORT 15-25 MPH SURFACE
WINDS /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ IN A BROAD AREA ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.  WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES /FROM
THE LOW 50S F IN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOW 60S F SOUTH/ AND FALLING RH
VALUES TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DELINEATION INCLUDES AREAS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.  EAST OF THIS AREA...FUELS MAY BE A BIT LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD GIVEN LIGHT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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