Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 291858
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXTENDED A BIT MORE SEWD TO INCLUDE ALL BUT
THE FAR NERN PORTION OF ERN MT BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
GUSTY WINDS AMIDST DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FARTHER E.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VALID WITH THE CONTINUED
EXPECTATION THAT ANY ANTECEDENT PRECIP WILL BE TOO LIGHT AND/OR
SPOTTY TO REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...N-CNTRL NV...FAR SE ORE...FAR SW ID...
WHILE MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER S
ACROSS NV...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS N-CNTRL
NV...FAR SE ORE...AND FAR SW ID. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING TSTM COVERAGE. THE NAM SUGGESTS
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SCATTERED COVERAGE WHILE THE
GFS HAS DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AROUND 40 DEG F AND VERY ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE CURRENTLY PRECLUDES
INTRODUCING AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDER THREAT AREA BUT ONE MAY BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

..MOSIER.. 06/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0357 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WRN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRESTING A MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE E/SEWD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING INCREASING NWLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.

...HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
A LEE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR ERN MT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
AMIDST MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MODEST
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ ACROSS MT. STRONG HEATING
AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
90S...WITH MIN RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-TEENS TO NEAR 20
PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL WITHIN THE
PAST MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF S-CNTRL INTO SERN MT...BUT RECENT PERIOD
OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IS LEADING TO CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED /PRIMARILY WET/ TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE MON/D1 PERIOD POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUE/D2...BUT PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE SPOTTY. GUSTY WINDS COULD POSE A CONCERN TO ANY
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS THAT EVOLVE OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL LIKELY TO EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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