Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 310931
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
AT THE SURFACE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...VERTICAL MIXING OF ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON.

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FEATURES TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...LOCAL TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS FROM DIURNAL
HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS /BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 IN/...DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION AND LIMIT SURFACE
RAINFALL...SUPPORTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

..JIRAK.. 07/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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