Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
000
FNUS53 KAPX 291928
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN LESS HUMID...

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS
WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS...WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-300830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0500. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300. CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-300830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-300830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.