Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 230407
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Nassawango Units 2 & 16 Prescribed fire...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1107 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND RESULTS IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS SURGES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 1800-2900 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 16 mph...increasing to 14 to 17
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............93  93  87  81  76  71  66  61  56  51  45  45
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................54  54  57  61  64  67  69  70  70  70  69  67
RH..................90  90  80  72  65  61  57  57  57  59  61  63
20 FT wind dir......S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......5   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.....10  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft).......0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 1.8
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.....7   8   9   12  13  15  16  17  17  17  16  14
LVORI...............5   4   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................8   9   10  15  20  27  34  40  40  39  35  30
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....2   2   5   10  16  24  33  43  42  40  35  21

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............45  44  46  48  49  48  47  46  55  64  74  65
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................64  61  59  57  57  56  56  56  56  55  55  55
RH..................67  72  78  83  86  86  83  83  83  86  86  86
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....10  8   8   8   8   8   7   6   5   5   5   3
LVORI...............3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
ADI.................9   7   7   7   7   5   4   4   3   3   3   3
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....9   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    late.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 1400-2700 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph...increasing to 13 to 15 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............57     50     53     43     37     36
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................54     58     67     71     71     69
RH..................90     77     59     53     57     66
20 ft wind..........S 4    S 4    S 5    S 6    S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.....10     10     10     15     15     20
Mix hgt (ft)........300    400    700    2100   2500   1900
Transport wind......S 5    S 5    S 6    S 12   S 15   S 15
LVORI...............6      4      3      2      1      3
ADI.................5      4      5      29     42     27
Chc of pcpn (%).....10     10     10     10     10     10
Haines index........4      4      4      4      4      5
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      2      4      21     32     24

$$
Forecaster...SCALORA
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702672.0/AKQ
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org



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