Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 300855
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Malvern hill rx...NPS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
455 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on March 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure becomes centered off the northeast coast Today.
Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries track
across the region on Friday, bringing rain and a chance of
afternoon thunderstorms. High pressure builds over the area
for the weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............63  70  73  77  80  81  83  84  84  84  85
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................47  47  48  49  52  53  54  55  55  56  55
RH..................79  71  68  66  59  54  52  51  53  51  53
20 FT wind dir......NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd......3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3
Transp wind dir.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.....13  14  14  13  12  10  9   8   9   10  12
LVORI...............4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................14  15  15  14  13  16  13  12  13  14  18
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/1000....3   3   3   3   9   13  10  9   9   10  14

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers after midnight. A chance of showers
                    late...then showers late.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............85  85  85  87  88  90  93  97  100 100 100 100
Weather cov.........                        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC DEF
Weather type........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................55  54  54  53  53  53  53  53  52  52  52  51
RH..................55  59  61  64  66  66  69  69  74  77  83  89
20 FT wind dir......SE  SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd......5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.....12  12  12  12  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9
LVORI...............2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5
ADI.................17  8   8   8   7   7   7   6   8   8   8   8
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   10  10  10  10  20  20  20  40  40  80
Haines index........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....12  11  11  10  9   8   7   6   4   4   3   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers. A slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon...then a chance of thunderstorms
                    late.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............100    100    100    100    100    89
Weather cov.........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............                            S CHC  CHANCE
Temp................51     52     58     63     66     68
RH..................89     86     77     75     75     68
20 ft wind..........SE 5   SE 5   SE 6   S 6    S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.....10     15     15     15     15     20
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    400    600    800    1600
Transport wind......SE 9   S 10   S 16   S 16   S 12   S 16
LVORI...............5      5      3      3      4      3
ADI.................8      11     17     17     13     29
Chc of pcpn (%).....80     90     90     100    80     70
Haines index........4      5      3      2      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      2      6      8      9      24

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...Matt Way
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705396.0/AKQ
.EMAIL matt_way@nps.gov



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