Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 281705
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR PINEY GROVE - UNIT 45...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1205 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON NOVEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FORMIDWEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
REGION.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............42  47  51  53  54  55  57
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................49  52  53  55  55  54  54
RH..................56  50  50  49  49  52  54
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......4   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  13  14  14  13  10  12
LVORI...............2   2   1   1   2   2   2
ADI.................10  23  34  32  29  21  17
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....7   12  18  19  19  17  13

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............60  63  66  71  76  75  75  74  80  85  91  93
WEATHER COV.........                                        SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                                        RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................52  50  49  49  50  50  50  50  51  51  52  53
RH..................61  68  77  77  77  80  83  86  86  93  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  5   10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  9   8   7   8   9   10  10  12  12  14
LVORI...............3   3   3   4   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.................7   7   6   5   5   5   8   9   10  10  11  12
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....7   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1700-2700 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 17
                    MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............94     96     95     95     95     95
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54     58     64     67     69     69
RH..................96     90     84     81     78     78
20 FT WIND..........S 7    S 8    S 10   S 10   S 10   S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     20     25     25     25     20
MIX HGT (FT)........300    400    700    2000   2600   2400
TRANSPORT WIND......S 15   S 16   S 16   S 24   S 26   S 20
LVORI...............5      4      4      3      3      3
ADI.................16     17     18     47     57     41
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20     50     50     50     50     50
HAINES INDEX........3      3      3      3      3      3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....4      6      9      42     58     40

$$
FORECASTER...ORROCK
REQUESTED BY...BOBBY CLONTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1603664.0/AKQ
.EMAIL BCLONTZ@TNC.ORG



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