Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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708
FNUS71 KAKQ 171250
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for VAJRR-FY18-RX-01...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
750 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on November 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure builds back into the area through tonight. Winds
will be rather light today with min RH values dropping into the
mid to upper 30s. The high slides offshore Saturday with a cold
front approaching the region from the west late. Becoming breezy by
Saturday afternoon. The cold front moves across the area Saturday
night into Sunday morning, producing scattered showers. Continued
breezy on Sunday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to northwest winds around 5 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2200-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............0   3   4   5   6   7   9   10  13
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................43  46  47  49  51  53  52  52  49
RH..................57  51  48  45  40  38  37  38  46
20 FT wind dir......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd......4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......1.5 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.5
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.....9   14  10  10  8   7   7   6   5
LVORI...............2   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................27  34  31  27  22  19  17  16  9
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....12  24  19  20  17  14  13  11  6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming south around 5 mph late.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............16  19  20  20  21  26  31  37  39  42  45  48
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................46  43  41  41  40  39  39  38  38  37  37  35
RH..................55  65  70  70  73  76  76  79  79  82  82  89
20 FT wind dir......SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   5   6   8
LVORI...............3   3   6   6   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   9
ADI.................2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   4   5
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    late in the morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2500-2700 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph, increasing to southwest 29
                    to 30 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............52     58     63     63     61     58
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................35     41     52     61     63     62
RH..................89     76     56     46     48     56
20 ft wind..........S 5    S 5    S 7    S 10   S 10   SW 11
20 ft wind gust.....10     15     15     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)........300    600    1400   2300   2700   2600
Transport wind......S 10   S 14   S 15   S 20   SW 25  SW 30
LVORI...............7      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.................12     15     24     42     59     66
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      10     10
Haines index........4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      8      19     40     61     68

$$
Forecaster...McGEE
Requested by...Paul Ryan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718888.2/AKQ
.EMAIL paul_ryan@fws.gov



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