Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 171414
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOLLI 5 RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1014 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING INTO
QUEBEC FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE BURN AREA. ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO REACH 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH AT IGNITION BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH
BY MID AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 11 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 22 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2500 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........60  65  70  73  75  77
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............45  48  50  51  51  50
RH..............43  40  41  42  46  50
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..10  10  10  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.20  25  25  25  20  20
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   3   3
SMOKE DISP......500 500 500 600 700 700

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
                    MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 7
                    TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-700 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........82  87  92  93  95  96  89  82  76  71  67  63
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  48  47  46  44  42  40  39  38  37  37  37
RH..............54  56  60  65  73  79  85  89  89  89  89  85
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..8   7   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.20  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......500 200 100 0   0   0   0   0   100 100 100 100

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49.
RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(800).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........68     63     65     67     69     61
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............36     37     42     46     49     49
RH..............89     75     60     51     44     40
20 FT WIND......W 5    NW 5   NW 6   NW 6   W 6    NW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      5      4
SMOKE DISP......100    200    200    400    600    800

$$
FORECASTER...JON VOSS
REQUESTED BY...G  GIFFORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140417.LOLLI.01/APX






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