Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 282136
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE 3...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
536 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRY EASTERLY BREEZES INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IMPACTING AREAS
SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR. THE RAIN WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHEASTERLY INTO SATURDAY.

NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AT THE FIRE SITE...AND IN GENERAL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST...MOSTLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
RATHER LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.
RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........78  75  76  77  77  78  79  80  80  81  82  83
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............47  46  44  42  39  37  35  34  33  32  31  31
RH..............35  37  33  37  44  52  56  58  63  66  69  69
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   NE  NE  E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
SMOKE DISP......400 400 300 200 100 100 0   0   0   0   0   0

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 57.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1400 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 4300-5600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........84     86     65     59     58     56
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............31     36     45     52     55     57
RH..............72     67     53     41     35     31
20 FT WIND......NE 3   NE 4   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      2      2      2      2      2
SMOKE DISP......0      0      100    200    300    300

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...HOLLY MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160429.SUNRI.01/APX


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