Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 231158
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARPENTER CREEK...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
758 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...WITH CURRENT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
READINGS DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF AROUND 25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO AROUND
FREEZING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND BACK A TOUCH
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS GO CALM QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4000-4400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   1   8   21  28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............43  45  47  49  50  50
RH..............35  33  31  28  25  24
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......500 500 500 500 500 400

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........26  23  22  24  28  30  32  35  36  38  41  43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  48  46  43  39  36  35  34  34  33  32  32
RH..............26  30  35  39  48  54  59  61  64  66  69  69
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   4   3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.CARPE.01/APX






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