Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 221608
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Creek Pile Burn...TNC
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
908 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

DISCUSSION...Today and tonight...Winds today will continue to gust
from the west sustained at 10 to 15 mph with gusts between 20 and
30 mph. These winds will continue until 6 to 7 pm this evening.
The onset of the cooler air will occur overnight with the snow
starting between midnight and 3 am. Snow will be light but
continuous through the day Thursday into early Friday. There will
be times where snow may diminish but another push from the north
will bring a resurgence of moisture and cooler air. Amounts are
looking like 6 to 8 inches by Friday morning. By ignition time you
could see 2 to 3 inches on the ground. If you require observations
for today or updates please feel free to call the office.



.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(50-60%) until 0800, then mostly
                    cloudy. Chance of rain showers until 0600.
                    chance of snow showers. chance of rain showers
                    after 1000.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 15 percent early in
                    the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........33%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......5400-6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 45-55 mph until 1100, then 35-45 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 0600, then excellent.
Haines Index........2 very low .

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain showers until 1800.
                    chance of snow showers until 2300, then snow
                    showers likely.
CWR.................25 percent increasing to 50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 20.
Max humidity........86%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 4-5 mph until 2000, then
                    variable up to 5 mph until 2300, then east 6-7
                    mph.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL until 1800. Below 1000 FT AGL after
                    0400.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 1800, then good until 1900,
                    then poor.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Snow likely until 1100, then snow.
CWR.................50 percent increasing to 80 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 30.
Min humidity........62%.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5-6 mph until 1100, then northwest
                    6-12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0600, then 5000-6000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15-25 mph until 1100, then northwest 25-35
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700, then fair until 0800, then
                    good until 0900, then very good until 1000,
                    then excellent until 1400, then very good until
                    1600, then good.
Haines Index........3 very low .


Fire Weather Table for Elkhorn Creek Pile Burn.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/22-10 62 32 11 42 43   W 21 33 2 1   W 63  4989   W 47204206     E
02/22-11 63 33 12 45 38   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 58  5361   W 46211883     E
02/22-12 66 33 12 47 34   W 21 33 2 1 WSW 60  5811   W 43214176     E
02/22-13 68 34 13 48 33   W 20 31 2 1 WSW 61  6261 WSW 39214071     E
02/22-14 71 34 13 48 33   W 18 30 2 1 WSW 62  6711 WSW 37211567     E
02/22-15 78 35 13 47 34   W 15 24 2 1 WSW 61  6393 WSW 33185306     E
02/22-16 80 38 16 46 37   W 13 21 2 1 WSW 61  6075 WSW 30160659     E
02/22-17 82 42 19 43 41 WSW  9 15 2 1 WSW 60  5757 WSW 28137627    V
02/22-18 85 43 20 40 46  SW  5  5 2 1 WSW 58  4300  SW 21 77325   G
02/22-19 87 45 22 36 56   CALM  1 2 1 WSW 55  2842 SSE 14 34283 P
02/22-20 88 47 23 33 64 ESE  2  2 2 1 WSW 54  1384  SE  7  8503 P
02/22-21 89 49 25 31 69 ESE  2  2 2 1 WSW 55  1458  SE 10 13704 P
02/22-22 90 52 28 30 72   E  3  3 3 1  SW 58  1531  SE 15 19384 P
02/22-23 91 56 32 30 72   E  7  7 3 1  SW 59  1605 ESE 18 25545 P
02/23-00 91 57 33 29 72   E  7  7 3 1  SW 58  1431 ESE 16 19324 P
02/23-01 91 57 33 28 75   E  8 13 2 1  SW 56  1257 ESE 13 13943 P
02/23-02 91 59 36 27 75   E  8 13 2 1  SW 55  1083 ESE 10  9401 P
02/23-03 91 64 44 25 78   E  8 13 2 1  SW 55   995  SE  9  7911 P
02/23-04 91 67 48 23 84 ESE  7  7 2 1  SW 55   907 SSE  8  6550 P
02/23-05 94 67 48 22 84 ESE  6  6 2 1  SW 55   819   S  7  5317 P
02/23-06 94 67 48 21 85   E  6  6 2 1  SW 48  1921 SSW 14 23682 P
02/23-07 94 67 48 20 86   E  6  6 3 1   W 40  3023   W 21 54910  F
02/23-08 94 67 48 21 81   E  6  6 3 1   W 32  4125  NW 28 98901   G
02/23-09 94 67 48 23 75  NE  6  6 3 1   W 31  4853 WNW 30127031    V
02/23-10 94 67 48 25 70   N  6  6 3 1 WNW 31  5581 WNW 32158363     E
02/23-11 98 87 79 27 66  NW  7  7 3 1 WNW 31  6309 WNW 36192897     E
02/23-12 98 87 79 28 63  NW  9 14 3 1 WNW 32  6357 WNW 32177639     E
02/23-13 98 87 79 28 62  NW 10 17 3 1 WNW 35  6405 WNW 29162130     E
02/23-14 98 87 79 26 65  NW 13 21 3 1 WNW 36  6453 WNW 26146369    V
02/23-15 98 87 79 25 66  NW 14 23 3 1 WNW 36  5457 WNW 23110096    V
02/23-16 98 87 79 23 68  NW 15 24 3 1 WNW 36  4461  NW 21 78817   G
02/23-17100 64 44 22 68  NW 15 24 3 1 WNW 35  3465 NNW 17 52532  F
02/23-18100 64 44 20 70  NW 14 22 3 1 WNW 32  3477 NNW 17 52910  F
02/23-19100 64 44 19 70 NNW 13 20 3 1   W 30  3489 NNW 17 53289  F
02/23-20100 64 44 18 70   N 10 16 3 1   W 28  3501   N 17 53669  F
02/23-21100 64 44 17 72   N  8 14 3 1   W 25  3508   N 16 47544  F
02/23-22100 64 44 17 71   N  7  7 3 1   W 24  3516   N 14 41393  F
02/23-23100 44 21 16 73   N  6  6 3 1   W 23  3523   N 12 35214 P
02/24-00100 44 21 16 71   N  6  6 3 1   W 22  3220   N 10 30263 P
02/24-01100 44 21 15 72   N  6  6 3 1   W 21  2917 NNW 10 25674 P
02/24-02100 44 21 15 70   N  6  6 3 1 WNW 20  2613 NNW  9 21446 P
02/24-03100 44 21 14 72 NNW  6  6 3 1 WNW 20  2444 NNW  9 20020 P
02/24-04100 44 21 13 74  NW  7  7 3 1 WNW 18  2274 NNW  9 18599 P
02/24-05 85 32 11 13 73  NW  7  7 3 1 WNW 18  2104 NNW  9 17182 P
02/24-06 85 32 11 12 75  NW  7  7 3 1 WNW 18  2243 NNW  8 16577 P
02/24-07 85 32 11 11 77  NW  7  7 3 1 WNW 17  2383   N  8 15756 P
02/24-08 85 32 11 12 73  NW  7  7 3 1 WNW 17  2522   N  7 14718 P
02/24-09 85 32 11 14 68  NW  8  8 3 1 WNW 18  3216 NNW  6 16539 P
02/24-10 85 32 11 17 62  NW  8 14 3 1 WNW 20  3909 NNW  5 17400 P
02/24-11 83 20  4 20 56  NW  9 15 3 1   W 20  4603  NW  5 17301 P
02/24-12 83 20  4 21 55  NW  9 15 3 1   W 21  4723   N  3 15545 P
02/24-13 83 20  4 21 55  NW  9 15 3 1   W 23  4844 NNE  3 13677 P
02/24-14 83 20  4 21 54  NW  9 15 3 1   W 24  4964 ENE  2 11696 P
02/24-15 83 20  4 21 54  NW  8 14 3 1   W 22  4417 ENE  3 13659 P
02/24-16 83 20  4 19 58  NW  8 13 3 1 WNW 20  3870 ESE  5 14817 P
02/24-17 72 20  4 17 61  NW  7  7 3 1 WNW 17  3323  SE  6 15168 P
02/24-18 72 20  4 14 67 WNW  6  6 3 1 WNW 18  2775 SSE  5 12366 P
02/24-19 72 20  4 12 70   W  6  6 3 1 WNW 18  2227   S  5  9682 P
02/24-20 72 20  4 10 73   W  6  6 3 1 WNW 20  1679 SSW  5  7117 P
02/24-21 72 20  4  9 75   W  6  6 3 1   W 21  1656  SW  7  9765 P
02/24-22 72 20  4  9 74   W  7  7 3 1   W 22  1632 WSW  9 12336 P
02/24-23 64  7  1  8 76   W  7  7 3 1   W 22  1609   W 10 14830 P
02/25-00 64  7  1  8 74   W  7  7 3 1   W 26  1754   W 13 19317 P
02/25-01 64  7  1  8 71   W  8  8 2 1 WSW 30  1899   W 15 24326 P
02/25-02 64  7  1  7 72   W  8 13 2 1 WSW 33  2044   W 17 29855 P
02/25-03 64  7  1  7 72   W  9 14 2 1   W 36  1817   W 20 31580 P
02/25-04 64  7  1  7 72   W  9 15 2 1   W 38  1590   W 23 32048 P
02/25-05 38  4  1  7 72   W 10 16 2 1 WNW 40  1364   W 26 31258 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BOWEN
REQUESTED BY...Chris Wennogle
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702567.1/BOU


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