Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 190226
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG ELK FIRE...BCSO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
827 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2008 MDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  THE AIRMASS
OVER THE BURN AREA WILL COOL OFF SOMEWHAT AND THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-80%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 3300-3800 FT AGL AFTER
                    2400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN CLOUDY.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-40%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH UNTIL
                    LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 5600 FT AGL UNTIL
                    0800...THEN 8300 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    11700-12700 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    14000-15000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 12300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
8-10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG ELK FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

05/18-20 76 36 14 47 60   W  9  9 3 4  SW 20  8052   W 18119121    V
05/18-21 69 36 14 47 60   W  9 14 3 4  SW 22  5884   W 20 99144   G
05/18-22 69 36 14 46 62   W 10 15 3 4 SSW 20  5187   W 21 92299   G
05/18-23 69 36 14 45 63   W 12 18 3 4 SSW 17  4491   W 22 85455   G
05/19-00 61 18  4 44 63 WNW 14 21 3 1 SSW 15  3794   W 24 78610   G
05/19-01 61 18  4 44 61 WNW 16 24 3 1 SSW 13  3809   W 23 75433   G
05/19-02 61 18  4 43 61   W 17 26 3 1  SW 12  3824   W 22 72256   G
05/19-03 61 18  4 42 62   W 18 28 3 1  SW  9  3839   W 21 69079   G
05/19-04 61 18  4 41 65   W 16 25 3 1 WSW  9  3551   W 21 64343   G
05/19-05 61 18  4 40 67   W 14 21 3 1 WSW 10  3264 WNW 21 59607  F
05/19-06 57 15  3 40 67   W 12 17 3 1   W 10  2976 WNW 21 54871  F
05/19-07 57 15  3 43 59   W 12 17 3 1   W  8  5645 WNW 18 71827   G
05/19-08 57 15  3 46 52   W 12 18 3 1   W  7  8313 WNW 15 88783   G
05/19-09 55 25  5 49 46   W 13 20 3 1   W  6 10982 WNW 12105739    V
05/19-10 55 25  5 51 42   W 13 20 3 1   W  6 12158 WNW 13132328    V
05/19-11 55 25  5 53 39 WNW 13 20 3 1   W  6 13334 WNW 14158917     E
05/19-12 86 42 19 54 37 WNW 13 20 3 2   W  6 14510 WNW 15185506     E
05/19-13 86 42 19 55 34 WNW 12 18 3 2   W  8 14737 WNW 15198513     E
05/19-14 86 42 19 55 33 WNW 12 16 3 2   W 10 14965 WNW 16211520     E
05/19-15 86 40 18 55 32 WNW 10 16 3 4 WNW 13 15193 WNW 17224526     E
05/19-16 86 40 18 54 35 WNW 10 16 3 4 WNW 17 13739 WNW 18218874     E
05/19-17 86 40 18 52 39 WNW 10 16 3 4  NW 22 12284 WNW 21213221     E
05/19-18 74 31 10 50 44   W 10 16 3 2  NW 25 10830 WNW 22207568     E
05/19-19 74 31 10 49 47 WNW  9 14 3 2  NW 24  9752 WNW 23190347     E
05/19-20 74 31 10 47 51 WNW  8  8 3 2  NW 23  8673 WNW 23173127     E
05/19-21 74 31 10 45 55 WNW  6  6 3 2  NW 22  7595 WNW 24155907     E
05/19-22 74 31 10 44 57 WNW  6  6 3 2  NW 18  6520 WNW 23131766    V
05/19-23 74 31 10 42 60   W  6  6 3 2 WNW 16  5445 WNW 23107625    V
05/20-00 73 30  9 42 62   W  6  6 3 1 WNW 13  4371 WNW 22 83484   G
05/20-01 73 30  9 41 62   W  6  6 3 1 WNW 14  3971 WNW 23 78392   G
05/20-02 73 30  9 40 62   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  3572 WNW 24 73300   G
05/20-03 73 30  9 39 64   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 15  3172 WNW 25 68207   G
05/20-04 73 30  9 38 70   W  8  8 3 1 WNW 14  2921 WNW 25 64359   G
05/20-05 73 30  9 37 75   W  9  9 3 1 WNW 13  2671 WNW 26 60511   G
05/20-06 89 41 18 37 75   W  9  9 3 1 WNW 12  2420 WNW 26 56662  F
05/20-07 89 41 18 40 67 WNW  9  9 3 1  NW 13  4049 WNW 28100513    V
05/20-08 89 41 18 44 57  NW  8  8 2 1 NNW 14  5677  NW 29144364    V
05/20-09 89 41 18 47 51  NW  8  8 2 1 NNW 16  7306  NW 30188215     E
05/20-10 89 41 18 50 48  NW  8  8 2 1 NNW 22  7962  NW 30211047     E
05/20-11 89 41 18 51 46 NNW  8  8 2 1   N 29  8619 NNW 31233878     E
05/20-12 97 55 30 51 48 NNW  8  8 2 2   N 35  9276 NNW 32256710     E
05/20-13 97 55 30 51 48 NNW  8  8 2 2   N 36  9072 NNW 31247393     E
05/20-14 97 55 30 51 46 NNW  9  9 2 2 NNW 36  8868 NNW 31238076     E
05/20-15 97 55 30 50 48 NNW  9  9 2 2 NNW 36  8664 NNW 30228759     E
05/20-16 97 55 30 49 52 NNW 10 10 2 2 NNW 37  8120 NNW 31220303     E
05/20-17 97 55 30 48 54 NNW 12 12 2 2 NNW 39  7576 NNW 32211847     E
05/20-18 94 41 18 46 60 NNW 12 12 2 1 NNW 41  7032  NW 33203390     E
05/20-19 94 41 18 45 62 NNW 12 12 2 1 NNW 41  6856  NW 32190336     E
05/20-20 94 41 18 45 62  NW 10 10 2 1 NNW 43  6679  NW 30177281     E
05/20-21 94 41 18 44 65  NW  9  9 2 1 NNW 43  6503  NW 29164227     E
05/20-22 94 41 18 43 67  NW  8  8 2 1 NNW 43  6256  NW 30159586     E
05/20-23 94 41 18 43 70  NW  8  8 2 1 NNW 44  6009  NW 30154946     E
05/21-00 69 23  5 42 73  NW  8  8 2 1 NNW 44  5762  NW 30150305     E
05/21-01 69 23  5 41 73 WNW  8  8 2 1 NNW 45  5098  NW 33142191    V
05/21-02 69 23  5 39 79 WNW  9  9 2 1 NNW 46  4434  NW 36134077    V
05/21-03 69 23  5 38 79 WNW 10 10 2 1 NNW 46  3770  NW 38125964    V
05/21-04 69 23  5 37 82 WNW 10 10 2 1 NNW 45  3522  NW 40122118    V
05/21-05 69 23  5 37 82 WNW 12 12 2 1 NNW 43  3274  NW 41118273    V
05/21-06 65 18  4 38 79 WNW 12 12 2 1   N 41  3027  NW 44114427    V
05/21-07 65 18  4 41 67 WNW 12 12 2 1   N 40  4060  NW 44155261     E
05/21-08 65 18  4 45 58 WNW 12 12 2 1   N 39  5094  NW 44196095     E
05/21-09 65 18  4 49 48 WNW 12 12 2 1   N 38  6127  NW 45236929     E
05/21-10 65 18  4 51 44 WNW 12 12 2 1   N 37  7062  NW 41249809     E
05/21-11 65 18  4 53 43  NW 12 12 2 1   N 36  7997  NW 38262689     E
05/21-12 60 18  4 55 40  NW 12 12 2 1   N 35  8933  NW 36275569     E
05/21-13 60 18  4 56 38  NW 10 10 2 1 NNW 32  9131  NW 33261297     E
05/21-14 60 18  4 57 37  NW 10 10 2 1 NNW 30  9329  NW 31247025     E
05/21-15 60 18  4 57 37  NW  9  9 2 1  NW 29  9528  NW 28232753     E
05/21-16 60 18  4 56 38  NW  8  8 2 1  NW 30  9213  NW 28217768     E
05/21-17 60 18  4 55 40  NW  8  8 2 1  NW 32  8898  NW 26202783     E
05/21-18 50 10  2 53 43  NW  7  7 2 1  NW 33  8583  NW 25187798     E

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...RJK
REQUESTED BY...JAY WILLETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130518.BIGEL.01/BOU
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