Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 171256
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE RUN...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
856 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST PA LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

10-HR FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY/CURE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
IN THE FORECAST. MIN RH/S ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500-6000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............61  61  61  61  61  68  68  68  68
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................37  40  44  46  48  49  51  53  51
RH..................58  52  46  43  41  39  37  35  39
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.4 1.9 3.2 4.6 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  12  12  13  14  15  15  16
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MAX HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-5000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............68  68  73  73  73  73  73  73  42  42  42  42
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................50  48  47  46  46  45  44  44  43  42  41  40
RH..................41  45  47  49  51  53  55  58  60  62  65  68
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.9 4.1 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  16  16  15  14  12  9   7   5   3   2   3
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............42  42  30  30  30  30  30  30  25  25  25  25
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................39  39  42  43  45  47  49  50  51  51  53  50
RH..................71  73  66  60  53  47  43  40  37  36  34  37
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/STEINBUGL
REQUESTED BY...JOHN WAKEFIELD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140418.PINER.01/CTP



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