Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 262312
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 210 Deer Head West...PA GAME COMMISSION
National Weather Service State College PA
612 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on February 27.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will pass south of the state tonight, then off the east coast
Monday, bringing fair and milder weather to the region. A weak disturbance
will bring increasing clouds Monday, but no more than a passing afternoon
sprinkle. An approaching warm front could bring showers to the area late Tuesday.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph...becoming light and
                    variable.
Mixing height.......2900-4200 ft AGL...increasing to 3500-5300 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon...then decreasing to
                    1000-2600 ft AGL early in the
                    evening...decreasing to 0-400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 20 mph...becoming southeast 2
                    to 9 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  84  88  89  93  95  92  85  82  82  82  82  80  75  73  72  69  68  67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............41  43  46  46  47  48  47  45  44  43  43  42  41  40  40  40  40  40  40
RH..............39  36  31  34  34  35  38  45  49  53  57  62  65  67  67  70  70  73  73
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.3 3.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  18  20  20  18  17  16  15  13  9   6   3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A chance of
                    showers.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    6 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL...increasing to 2100-3100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 9 mph...increasing to 14 to 23 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  64  66  70  74  77  81  83  84  86  88  89
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............40  40  41  44  47  49  51  53  55  56  55  55
RH..............76  76  79  73  71  68  68  66  64  64  69  72
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.1
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   3   6   9   14  18  21  23  23  22
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Fitzgerald
Requested by...Steven Bernardi
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702944.0/CTP
.EMAIL sbernardi@pa.gov


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