Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 271229
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 075 FRAZIER DRAFT...PGC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
829 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY
OF MAINLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE DISTRICT BY FRIDAY.


&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5
                    TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5600-7000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............78  75  71  69  69  69  69  69  63
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57  60  62  64  66  69  69  70  69
RH..................85  79  74  67  61  56  55  54  55
20 FT WIND DIR......W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   7   7   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....    10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.1 3.4 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  13  14  14  14  13  12  12  10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-6300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-1300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............50  37  30  30  29  29  26  21  19  19  19  19
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................69  67  63  61  58  57  56  55  54  54  53  52
RH..................57  62  72  78  85  87  89  91  93  95  97  99
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   6   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10                      5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.3 5.7 4.9 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   8   7   7   6   5   3   2   2   2   2
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............19  19  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51  54  56  59  62  65  67  69  71  73  74  73
RH..................99  91  82  76  70  65  60  57  55  52  50  53
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   SW  W   SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5                           5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.2 5.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   1   2   5   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...CLIFF GUINDON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150827.SGL07.02/CTP



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