Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FNUS73 KEAX 281353
FWSEAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SUMMER 2014 NR STEELE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
853 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON AUGUST 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE SMOKE
DISPERSION THROUGH PEAK HEATING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40%
RANGE. THOUGH THE BULK OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6000-7400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 4900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........45  43  38  36  33  29
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............90  90  91  92  91  89
RH..............52  49  46  43  46  49
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..12  13  14  14  12  9
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5
                    TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........26     25     28     39     42     46
WEATHER COV.....                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............88     79     75     74     72     71
RH..............52     68     74     71     78     83
20 FT WIND......S 7    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.60 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........57     62     68     78     76     76
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............70     75     79     81     81     81
RH..............86     82     76     69     70     70
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 8    S 10   S 10   S 10   S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.       10            15     15     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...32
REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140828.SUMME.01/EAX





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