Suppression Forecast
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650
FNUS74 KEPZ 221610
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for West Mountain Unit 6...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1010 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on May 22.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Enough moisture will remain over the region for a few showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Expect
similar temperatures today to Sunday with humidities flirting
with 15 percent.  A cold front will push through overnight and
bring in some lower clouds to the area with a north to northeast
wind.  This will drop temperatures about 10 degrees for tomorrow
although winds will be shifting around from the east to northeast
back to the west by the mid afternoon which will push the moisture
east of area.  Temperatures will warm back up for the later half
of the week with possibly the warmest temperatures of the year and
red flag conditions becoming likely Thursday and Friday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable under 7 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph
                    around early afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL increasing to 16700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 24 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (129800 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (366300 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........20     44     55     55
Weather cov.....NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      30     30     30
LAL.............1      2      3      3
Temp............68     71     74     72
RH..............32     23     16     20
20 ft wind......W 5    W 10   W 13   W 12
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....8300   16700  16700  16700
Transport wind..W 16   W 22   W 25   W 25
Haines index....4      4      5      5
Vent Rate.......VYGD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph becoming north
                    5 to 10 mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     55     55     65     65     65
Weather cov.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     0      0      0      0
LAL.............3      2      1      1      1      1
Temp............70     62     55     48     45     43
RH..............22     32     48     60     69     75
20 ft wind......W 15   W 9    W 6    N 7    N 7    N 6
20 ft wind gust.25     15     10     15     15     15
Haines index....5      6      5      4      4      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 6700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (24100 knot-ft) increasing to good (77900
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........64        64        40        40
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............44        52        60        65
RH..............77        55        43        34
20 FT wind......N 6G10    NE 10G15  N 9G15    NW 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....2400      2400      6700      6700
Transport wind..NE 12     NE 15     N 12      NW 14
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Josh Taylor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709832.1/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fes.us



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