Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 270029
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Corral...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
629 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 MDT on June 26.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers and storms are lingering in the area this evening.
As these move past gusty and erratic outflow winds winds
remain possible. Outside of storms, winds look to remain rather
light.  Winds will start to shift around to the west to southwest
tomorrow which will begin the drying out which will take full
effect for the later half of the week when relative humidities
will be back to around 10 percent. Winds will be on the increase
Wednesday and Thursday which could come close to 20 mph. With
recent rains, fuels may need a little more time to dry out to
warrant any warnings. Some thunderstorm chances will return for
the weekend.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........94-99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph shifting to the northeast 8
                    to 9 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the northwest 2 to 3 mph late in the evening
                    shifting to the southeast 5 to 6 mph after
                    midnight shifting to the southwest around 3
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........76     76     76     65     65     65
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     40     20     20     20
LAL.............4      4      4      3      3      3
Temp............72     65     59     55     51     50
RH..............44     57     73     85     96     97
20 ft wind......SE 9   SE 6   SE 6   SE 6   S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.15     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   4400   4400   200    200    200
Transport wind..S 10   E 9    NW 3   NW 2   E 6    SW 3
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      4
Vent Rate.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....84-87.
Min humidity........17-19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL increasing to 14000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (67400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (225900 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........41     41     41     61     61     61
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     20     20     20
LAL.............4      4      4      3      3      3
Temp............49     60     74     82     85     85
RH..............97     63     36     25     22     19
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 8   SW 10  SW 12  W 14   W 14
20 ft wind gust.15     15     20     25     25     30
Mix hgt (ft)....7700   7700   7700   14000  14000  14000
Transport wind..SW 3   SW 10  W 13   W 10   W 13   W 17
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....52-53.
Max humidity........26-29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......12400 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (219000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1300 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........61        61        28        28
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    ISOLTD    NONE      NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        10
LAL.............2         2         1         1
Temp............83        71        61        54
RH..............18        22        26        27
20 FT wind......W 14G25   W 12G25   W 10G20   W 9G20
Mix hgt (ft)....12400     12400     200       200
Transport wind..W 21      W 10      W 8       W 7
Haines index....5         5         5         6
Vent Rate.......EXNT      EXNT      POOR      POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....85-89.
Min humidity........9-10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 11 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    increasing to 30 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL increasing to 9800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (89600 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (162200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........36           36           46
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            10
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............52           76           86
RH..............27           12           9
20 FT wind......W 9G20       W 13G25      W 16G30
Mix hgt (ft)....5800         5800         9800
Transport wind..W 6          W 16         W 18
Haines index....5            4            5
Vent Rate.......GOOD         GOOD         EXNT

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711287.7/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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