Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 201420
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Delta West...SCDNR
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
920 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will prevail through tonight. A coastal trough will
develop just offshore Tuesday and another cold front from the
northwest will combine to produce light rain possibly by as early
as Tuesday afternoon, but more-so Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Weak high pressure will build back across the area during
Wednesday.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...is low.

An inversion below 1000 ft is expected to develop tonight by 7-8 PM, and
persist into Tuesday before eroding during late morning.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming east 5 to 6
                    mph, then becoming light and variable late.
Max Mixing Hgt......2700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 14 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......30934 mph-ft.
Max ADI.............36.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   3   5   8   10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  58  60  61  60  60  56
RH..............40  35  32  31  32  36  43
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.7
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.14  13  10  9   8   7   6
Haines Index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..30  31  28  24  20  16  10
Stability.......C   C   C   C   C   C   C
ADI.............36  36  31  27  23  19  12
Aparnt Tmp (F)..55  57  59  60  60  59  55
Sfc pres (in)...025 025 025 025 025 025 025

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 1 to 5 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......345 mph-ft.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13  15  18  21  25  28  31  34  38  42  47  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  47  45  43  42  42  43  44  44  44  44  44
RH..............55  69  81  90  94  95  94  94  96  100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   2   2   1   1
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   2   1   1   1
VR MPH-FT*1000..4   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of rain in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming east around
                    5 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then becoming light and variable late.
Max Mixing Hgt......1900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 8 mph, becoming southeast 12 to 16
                    mph in the afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......28289 mph-ft.
Max ADI.............29.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........55     57     65     73     78     80
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
Temp............44     52     60     65     67     65
RH..............100    86     73     68     69     78
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      10     10     10     20     20
20 ft wind......SE 1   E 3    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 4
20 ft wind gust.       4      6      6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    300    1300   1800   1500
Transport wind..E 2    E 3    E 6    SE 13  SE 16  SE 15
Haines Index....4      5      3      3      3      3
VR MPH-FT*1000..1      1      1      17     28     23
Stability.......B      C      D      D      D      D
ADI.............2      3      6      19     29     25
Aparnt Tmp (F)..44     52     60     65     67     65
Sfc pres (in)...30.21  30.19  30.19  30.19  30.07  30.07

$$
Forecaster...Pfaff
Requested by...Joachim Treptow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719021.0/ILM
.EMAIL treptowj@dnr.sc.gov



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