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000
FNUS71 KLWX 181855
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Buck Mountain afternoon...usfs
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
255 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Chances for showers will increase tomorrow into tomorrow night as
low pressure tracks well to our north. A cold front will move
through tomorrow night into Saturday morning, ushering in cooler
conditions for the weekend.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon will be around 40
percent. Winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts
to near 20 mph possible. Near full sun is expected for the
remainder of the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (63700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  12  9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0
Temp............69  70  70
RH..............48  41  40
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  12  10
20 FT wind gust.14  17  16
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   7   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.8   10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.14  13  13
Haines index....4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64  55  49
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds up to 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast up to 4
                    mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 9 mph shifting to the
                    north 5 to 7 mph early in the evening, then
                    becoming light late in the evening becoming
                    southeast 5 to 6 mph overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 12 mph shifting to the north
                    around 5 mph late in the evening, then shifting
                    to the southeast 2 to 8 mph in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........18     10     9      27     39     52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............69     63     59     56     54     51
RH..............41     55     62     68     76     86
20 ft wind......NW 9   N 5    E 3    SE 3   SE 6   S 6
20 ft wind gust.13     7      5      6      8      8
Eye level wind..NW 5   N 3    E 2    SE 2   SE 4   S 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      4      3      4      5      5
Transport wind..NW 12  N 7    E 3    SE 2   SE 3   SE 7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34     7      1      0      0      2
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning. Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (16600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........73     85     81     83     86     76
Weather cov.....                     CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............10     10     10     40     60     60
Temp............51     51     56     61     64     66
RH..............83     89     80     71     66     65
20 ft wind......S 6    SE 10  S 13   S 13   S 12   S 12
20 ft wind gust.8      14     18     18     17     16
Eye level wind..S 4    SE 6   S 8    S 8    S 7    S 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.5      8      11     11     10     10
Transport wind..SE 8   S 9    S 12   S 14   S 14   S 10
Haines index....6      6      6      6      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      5      11     15     13     17
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...Hofmann
Requested by...aaron strobel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411345.0/LWX
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL james.collett@usda.gov,aaron.p.strobel@usda.gov