Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 301247
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Spot Forecast for Holliday Lake State Park...Virginia Dept. Cons. & Rec., Div. State Parks
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
847 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A wedge of high pressure will remain along the eastern slopes of
the Appalachians today resulting in plenty of clouds, cooler
temperatures, and spotty light rain or drizzle. A strong low
pressure system passing to the northwest will erode the
wedge and bring widespread rainfall along with a few thunderstorms
tonight into Friday. Drier weather on gusty northwest breezes
returns under high pressure on Saturday.

Under mostly cloudy skies, high temperature this afternoon
will climb to around 56 degrees. Minimum relative humidity will
drop to 53 percent. East winds (20 ft) at 2 to 6 mph are expected
today. Mixing heights of 2600 ft agl will drop tonight to around
400 feet. winds will become light and variable tonight.



.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 10 to 14 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................25.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  86  84  83  82  82  82  83  84
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............52  52  53  53  54  54  54  54  55
RH..............60  57  55  53  53  53  54  56  58
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
Mixng wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Mixng wind spd..14  13  12  12  10  10  10  10  10
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............29  28  26  24  23  22  22  21  22
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the evening. Showers likely after
                    midnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent...increasing to 40 percent in the
                    evening...increasing to 70 percent tonight.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 7 to 15 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................24...decreasing to 9.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........86     89     93     97     100    100
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     30     40     50     70     70
Temp............54     54     54     53     52     51
RH..............60     66     73     79     84     87
20 ft wind......E 5    E 4    SE 4   SE 4   SE 4   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     5      10
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   1900   1500   1100   700    500
Mixing wind......SE 13  SE 15  SE 15  SE 14  SE 13  SE 8
LVORI...........2      3      3      4      4      5
ADI.............24     10     10     10     11     8
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers. A chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......90 percent...increasing to 100 percent in the
                    morning...then decreasing to 70 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 7 to 15 mph...becoming southwest around 9
                    mph late.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................8...increasing to 39 early in the
                    afternoon...decreasing to 28 tonight...decreasing to 13
                    late.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........100    100    94     92     92     90
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............90     100    100    100    70     70
Temp............50     49     54     58     62     64
RH..............88     100    96     88     85     79
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 6   SE 7   S 7    S 8    S 7
20 ft wind gust.15     10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....400    300    300    700    1400   600
Mixing wind......SE 7   SE 8   SE 8   S 15   S 24   S 15
LVORI...........5      8      6      4      4      3
ADI.............6      9      9      16     39     16
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      4

$$
Forecaster...Kostura
Requested by...Irene Frentz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705537.0/RNK


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