Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FNUS73 KSGF 141055
FWSSGF

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1459 CST ON FEBRUARY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE...

POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL CLIP EASTERN TANEY COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON ENDING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SLEET WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS EARLY THIS MORNING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF LIGHT
                    FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SLEET EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN...DRIZZLE...FREEZING
                    RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE
                    MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN...SNOW AND PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 37.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........96  98  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 93  94  88  83
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....FZD FZD FZD FZD FZD FZD FZR RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............25  26  28  28  29  30  31  32  33  34  35  36  37  37
RH..............52  57  60  63  60  63  69  72  78  78  82  82  82  79
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..8   7   7   7   7   6   5   5   5   4   3   3   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  15  15  15  10  10      5   5   5   10  5
CHC OF PCPN (%).40  40  50  50  60  70  60  60  50  40  30  30  20  20
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........84  77  77  77  77  78  79  80  83  84  85  85
WEATHER COV.....                        PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....                        FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
TEMP............37  37  35  34  32  32  33  33  30  30  30  31
RH..............82  82  89  92  96  96  92  92  100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  S   SE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56.
RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH DURING MID
                    AND LATE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........86  86  85  85  80  68  62  57  47  42  37  27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............31  32  33  35  39  44  48  52  55  56  55  53
RH..............100 96  96  89  79  65  56  48  43  40  41  46
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..1   1   2   2   2   2   2   3   4   5   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.                    5   5   5   5           5
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WISE
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG GILBERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160213.BIGCR.01/SGF



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