Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FNUS73 KSGF 171308 AAA
FWSSGF

Spot Forecast for Turnip Knob...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
708 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-762-4363, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected today as winds remain
breezy out of the southwest and temperatures warm to around
70 degrees. Some locations may approach more critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon if dew points are lower than currently
expected.

Moisture levels will increase this weekend while temperatures
remain warm. A few showers may develop Saturday across far southern
Missouri but most locations will remain dry. The next chance for
scattered showers will arrive Sunday night and Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........43 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................65 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
DEWPOINT............34 increasing to 38 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Winds south at 4 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 200-1700 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2400-4100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....South 6 to 12 mph increasing to southwest 17 to
                    22 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor /1000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /42900 knot-ft/ increasing to good to excellent
                    (55000-72600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   0   0   0   1   3   7   16  25  31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
CHC OF THDR (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
TEMP............43  48  52  59  63  67  69  69  69  66
DEWPOINT........32  34  36  37  38  38  39  38  38  38
RH..............65  58  54  44  38  35  33  32  32  36
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..3   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   7   12  17  21  21  18  17  20  22
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4
VRATE KT-FT/10001   3   9   24  43  55  60  61  68  73

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 percent.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
DEWPOINT............39.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........South winds 5 to 6 mph until late evening
                    becoming light.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3500 ft AGL decreasing to 900-1400 ft AGL
                    early in the morning.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....South 15 to 23 mph decreasing to 7 to 12 mph
                    early in the morning.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair to excellent (21600-69700 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor to fair (5600-14900 knot-ft)
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........42  48  54  60  66  72  78  77  77  77  77  76
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
CHC OF THDR (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
TEMP............63  60  58  55  54  53  52  52  51  50  49  48
DEWPOINT........38  39  40  41  41  41  40  40  41  41  41  41
RH..............39  46  51  59  61  64  63  63  68  71  74  77
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.23  21  18  16  16  17  17  15  12  9   8   7
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/100070  56  40  29  27  28  28  22  15  10  7   6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 percent.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 52 percent.
DEWPOINT............42 increasing to 50.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Light winds.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....South 6 to 8 mph.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to good (3200-30800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........76  76  76  75  75  74  74  69  65  65  69  50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
CHC OF THDR (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
TEMP............47  49  51  52  55  59  63  66  68  68  67  65
DEWPOINT........41  43  44  46  47  49  51  51  51  50  50  50
RH..............79  80  77  80  74  69  65  58  54  52  54  58
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.9 3.9 4.4 3.9 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7   6   6   6   6   7   8   8   8   8   7   6
HAINES INDEX....5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/10005   4   3   4   6   9   14  19  27  31  24  15

$$
Forecaster...WISE
Requested by...Reggie Bray
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702306.0/SGF
.EMAIL rebray@fs.fed.us



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