Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FNUS74 KSJT 181421
FWSSJT

Spot Forecast for Hays 2017 one a...Buffalo Branch Ranch
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
821 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 18.
Please contact our office at 325-944-3030 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Light southwest winds this morning will shift and become a little
more westerly by late morning and continue into the afternoon.
Wind speeds of 5 to 10 mph will be common...although a higher gust
to 15 mph is possible. With temperatures climbing to near the 80
degree mark, afternoon humidities will quickly fall to near 25
percent.

Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will be possible
on Sunday, with wind speeds and direction varying greatly near
these storms. More cloud cover on Sunday will lead to slightly
cooler temperatures and slightly higher afternoon humidity values.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4100 ft AGL
                    by noon...and then to 4900 ft AGL late
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor in the morning (1600 knot- ft)
                    increasing to good to excellent
                    (39300-74100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........14     21     22     19     20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............54     68     77     78     78
RH..............61     39     30     28     30
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 8   S 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1900   3300   4900   1800
Mixing wind......W 14   W 14   W 16   SW 17  S 8
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10008      23     45     74     13

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......200-1000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 5 to 13 mph shifting to the south
                    around 16 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (800-13600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........20     10     11     21     47     61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............75     67     63     60     60     56
RH..............34     47     54     62     75     96
20 ft wind......S 3    SE 3   SE 5   SE 5   SE 6   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.5      5                    10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....200    200    200    200    300    700
Mixing wind......S 5    S 6    S 8    SE 8   SE 8   S 13
Haines index....5      5      5      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10001      1      1      1      2      7

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300-3000 ft AGL increasing to .8000 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 13 to 21 mph shifting to the west
                    around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (21300-54600 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (61100-104200 knot-ft)
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........increasing to 5 moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........79     82     81     74     67     68
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............55     56     65     73     77     77
RH..............100    100    84     64     47     42
20 ft wind......SE 8   S 8    S 9    S 10   S 10   SW 10
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1400   2000   3000   6400   5500
Mixing wind......S 20   S 21   S 21   SW 21  SW 17  SW 13
Haines index....5      5      2      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100021     25     36     55     95     61

$$
Forecaster...PMCCULLOUGH
Requested by...John Hays
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702406.0/SJT



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