Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 242315
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE OUT FOR BOTH THE CHENA RIVER, WHERE THE CORPS
OF ENGINEERS ARE CONTINUING TO OPERATE THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT,
AND THE TANANA RIVER NEAR FAIRBANKS. GROUND WATER SEEPAGE AND
INUNDATING OF LOW LYING AREAS AT BOAT LAUNCHES,TRAILHEADS, DRIVEWAYS
AND SOME ROADS IN THE ROSIE CREEK AND STEAMBOAT LANDING SUBDIVISIONS
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

THE SUMMIT LAKE GLACIER DAMMED LAKE RELEASED AND REACHED A PEAK OF
27.6 SATURDAY MORNING. WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY AND
SHOULD FALL TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WATER LEVELS ON THE TAIYA RIVER ARE BACK DOWN THIS MORNING AFTER
REACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY. THE TAIYA
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY LOW.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST THEN DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF
BY MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HAS CREATED PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN THAT COVER A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW BEING GENERATED BY MONDAY MORNING OVER
THE NORTH GULF FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THAT
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE ALLOWS
PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY BUT KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM
TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   4.50
SAWA2    SPEEL ARM STATION 4- PC RZ :   4.46
SLVA2    SILVIS POWERHOUSE    PP RZ :   2.31
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   2.30
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   2.09
PPSA2    POWDER PATCH STATION PC RZ :   1.69
DBWA2    DRY BAY GLACIER BAY  PP RG :   1.67
KTNA2    BEAVER FALLS POWERHO PP RZ :   1.64
JSBA2    SUICIDE BASIN        PP RZ :   1.63
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   1.58
MHPA2    MITKOF HWY PETERSBUR PP RZ :   1.55
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PP RG :   1.46
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   1.35
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   1.32
ECEA2    EAGLECREST TOP CWOP  PP RZ :   1.32
SCSA2    SAWMILL CREEK NEAR S PP RG :   1.30
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :   1.20
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PC R2 :   1.14
MNDA2    MENDENHALL LAKE LEVE PP RG :   1.12
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP RZ :   1.11
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PC RG :   1.05
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :   1.00
PAKK     KOYUK                PP RZ :   0.99
KOYA2    KOYUKUK NWR RAWS     PP RG :   0.99
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   0.98
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.93
HATA2    HATCHER PASS         PC R2 :   0.92
PAJN     JUNEAU               PP RZ :   0.89
ABYA2    AUKE BAY LAB DOCK    PC RZ :   0.89
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :   0.87
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PP RG :   0.86
KPHA2    KETCHIKAN POWERHOUSE PP RZ :   0.85
HONA2    HOONAH RAWS          PC RG :   0.83
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   0.82
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :   0.80
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.79
GNLA2    NUNATAK LOWER GLACIE PC RG :   0.79
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PC R3 :   0.67
WLWA2    WILLOW CREEK NR CANY PP RG :   0.65

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ALSAKA
PENINSULA.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE EXCEPT MAYBE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$

ETH


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