Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271608
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

                   VALID MARCH 27 THROUGH APRIL 1

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Very light precipitation is occurring along a weak cold front,
draped across central Oklahoma.  Rainfall amounts are averaging
0.10 inch per hour. This activity is expected to remain very light,
and should not cause any additional river issues. Elsewhere, a large
ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the western third
of the U.S. This ridge will move slowly eastward and will be located
over western Texas by Monday morning.

The ridge should begin to weaken on Monday. This will allow a weak
cold front to approach our region from the north, and this front may
produce a few showers over northeast Texas.  Meanwhile, a new
storm is forecast to form over Baja California.  This storm is
forecast to move eastward, and it will bring another chance for rain
to parts of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas later
Monday into Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms exists for Texas just beyond this five-day forecast
period...mainly within the Tuesday-Thursday time frame.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Central and South Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two
thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near
historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events
have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over
deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana.
The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC
area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Above Toledo Bend reservoir, elevated flows remain at Logansport
(LPTL1). Reservoir releases have decreased this morning, so falling
stages can be expected to begin to work their way downstream on the
lower Sabine River. Moderate flood conditions continue at Bon Wier
(BWRT2) and a slight additional rise over the next day to moderate
flood stage is expected at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Routed water is forecast to keep Bloomington (DUPT2) above minor
flood level for a day or so more.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous. Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested
and are slowly receding.  Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed limited
generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly evacuated.
Lake Steinhagen releases will continue to hold near 20,000 cfs until
Sam Rayburn Lake is able to completely evacuate the flood pool,
likely via generation. This process is expected to take several
weeks.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) is still above
bankfull levels but receding.  A secondary rise crested into minor
flood stage near Boling (BOLT2). This reach of the river is
expected to remain high over the next few days. Sweeny (SWYT2)
will also fluctuate above action stage for several days.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Bankfull flooding is still occurring in the lower Trinity at
Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with
no significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Navasota River near Normangee (NGET2) is still above bankfull
and continues to fall.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils are very wet over east and southeast Texas after the recent
rainfall episode. No significant rainfall is in the forecast for
the next 5 days or so.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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