Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241704
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1104 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

                VALID DECEMBER 24 THROUGH DECEMBER 29

...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAINFALL IN EAST TEXAS THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough has moved to the east of the area this
Wednesday morning. Dry and cool weather is expected throughout the
WGRFC area of responsibility today under northerly flow aloft.

Another upper level trough is expected to enter the Great Basin by
early Thursday, bringing a return of southwesterly flow aloft to the
mountains of New Mexico and Colorado. Snow is expected to begin
Thursday in these states and continue in some locations into the
weekend as the upper level trough moves over southern Colorado.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in eastern Texas
Friday under southwesterly flow aloft, and continue into the weekend.
Basin averaged rainfall should be generally under 1 inch.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for southwestern Colorado and western New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for portions of central and northeastern New Mexico and for
portions of far northeastern Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25
inch are forecast for southern Colorado, the rest of New Mexico, and
most of northern and eastern Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Lesser
MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of eastern and southern Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry
enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Pine Island Bayou at Sour Lake is currently experiencing higher
than normal flows.  Flows at this location are beginning to taper
off.  River stages are forecast to fall below criteria levels
Thursday.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining WGRFC river systems are below criteria levels.  No
flooding is expected over the next several days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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