Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261701
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

                  VALID FEBRUARY 26 THROUGH MARCH 3

...AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR TEXAS, AND A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A fairly strong cold front will clear the Texas Coast Thursday.
Disturbances in the flow aloft have brought light snow and rain to a
large portion of Texas, with moderate snow over Eastern New Mexico.

A well organized Pacific storm will track down the West Coast through
the weekend.  This will help shift the upper level pattern to a
southwesterly flow aloft.  This flow will help pump deeper Pacific
moisture into the WGRFC area.

Weak disturbances over Texas could help initiate precipitation later
Friday, continuing into Wednesday.  Light to moderate precipitation
is expected, especially for the eastern half of Texas.

For New Mexico and Southern Colorado, this southwesterly flow aloft
will help continue to recent trend of significant snow events,
especially for Southwest Colorado and Northwest Mexico.  The
previously mentioned upper level Pacific storm will hang around the
Southwest U.S. through the middle of next week.  Widespread snowfall
is expected across New Mexico and Southern Colorado, with upslope
areas receiving significant snow amounts.  Some areas will measure
new snow in "feet" increments through early next week.  Widespread
beneficial snowfall should help dent the below normal precipitation
pattern for this area.

                   ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico.
Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico.  Lighter
MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are
forecast for Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico.  MAP amounts
of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
expected over Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico.  MAP amounts
of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of New Mexico and
for East Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
The most significant precipitation in the forecast the next five days
is for New Mexico and Southern Colorado.  No significant runoff is
expected elsewhere the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Rainfall Wednesday has developed another small rise on the uppermost
end of the Sabine River system with both Cowleech Fork at Greenville
(GNVT2) and South Fork near Quinlan (QLAT2) having crested just above
flood stage this afternoon. This water will flow into Lake Tawakoni
which is still 10 feet below normal. Downstream, the gage at Mineola
(MLAT2) is rising and should briefly reach action stage on Friday.
Additional rainfall this weekend will cause additional rises
and will need to be monitored for potential forecasts.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Continued periods of cold rain and wintry precipitation over the area
through Monday will be beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation
will slowly melt and infiltrate soils. A few criteria
forecasts may be necessary in the flashier basins of east Texas through
the period.
              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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