Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS California-Nevada RFC

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AGUS76 KRSA 261639
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
840 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

...SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS NV/SRN CA/SIERRA THROUGH TUE NIGHT...
...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA/SRN SIERRA/
SRN NV THU/FRI...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING JAN 26 AT 400 AM PST)...

DRY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

IN AN ATYPICAL WINTERTIME PATTERN, PW VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND
1" IN PORTIONS OF SE CA THANKS TO SELY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA
COAST.  RADAR SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE TRANSVERSE RANGES OF SRN CA,
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.  ADDITIONAL ECHOES APPEAR
OVER ERN IMPERIAL AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES AND EXTREME SRN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY, AND SOME OF THE THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS.  IT APPEARS A STRAY SHOWER PASSED OVER
SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIP TO SPREAD NWD TO COVER VIRTUALLY
ALL OF SE CA AND UP INTO THE TRANSVERSE RANGES AND THE FAR SRN
SIERRA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE INTENSITY TO PICK UP A BIT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A VORT MAX SWINGS AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW AND MOVES S TO N ACROSS SRN CA.  THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
OPENS UP AND MOVES ACROSS SRN CA/NV ON TUE, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NV AND THE SIERRA BY TUE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY TUE NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
IN NE NV INTO WED MORNING.  AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
CNTRL COAST WED, A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR THE SRN SIERRA CREST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT.  EXPECT FREEZING LEVELS 8000-
10,000 FT.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: THU AM - SUN AM)...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SOCAL ON THURSDAY. THE LOW
BEGINS TO WRAP UP AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ECMWF SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CA/NV ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP
THE AREA MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THE NV MOUNTAINS. HAVE GONE WITH THE MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST OF THE GFS/GEM FOR NOW.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY SMALL RISES IN STAGE ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS IN SOUTHERN CA
AND THE SIERRA NEVADA.  ALL STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

MI/KL/MI/AT

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