Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 011505
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1005 AM EST Sunday, March 1, 2015
Widespread precipitation is occurring today as a storm system crosses the
region. Precipitation types vary throughout, with snow across the north,
rain/snow/sleet in the middle of the basin, and all rain across the south.
The disturbance will exit tonight setting up a relatively dry day under
high pressure on Monday.
The respite will be brief as precipitation ahead of the next system arrives
late Monday night. With this next system being warmer, precipitation may start
as a wintry mix but will quickly turn over to all rain as southerly flow pumps
warm air into the basin. Precipitation will linger into Thursday but may
turn back over to snow before ending as colder air works in behind the front.
Rainfall with this system will be heavy at times, and when combined with
snowmelt will likely cause flooding concerns by mid to late week.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday on top of an extensive snow pack is
expected to generate widespread minor flooding. Moderate to even major
flooding is possible, particularly for the middle, southeast, and
east-central Ohio Valley. It appears the flood threat is lower in middle TN
due to the lack of snow on the ground, and also in the Allegheny watershed
where there is plenty of snow, but the relatively cooler temperatures will
preclude excessive snowmelt.
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Wintry precipitation fell across much of the middle and northern basin
Saturday night. Amounts were heaviest in central IN with around 0.50".
Otherwise, most locations ranged between 0.10" to 0.40" liquid equivalent.
The far southern basin was dry.
...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Precipitation will be widespread, though most of it will end by Monday
morning. Forecast amounts are heaviest across the eastern basin will 0.25"
to 0.75" in spots. The rest of the Ohio Valley can expected 0.25" or less.
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation