Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 260801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS WILL MAKE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH WED. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
WILL PULSE OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS
THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF MON AND
TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTICED IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
OUTPUT AMONG MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE THIS
MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CENTERED BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND EASTERN PANAMA. STRONG WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS ACROSS THAT
PORTION OF THE BASIN. STRONG AND STUBBORN HIGH PRES N OF THE BASIN
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LOCALIZED
EFFECT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THESE WINDS THE BEST AND
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE IN THIS AREA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN PANAMA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT EACH NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KT
LATE TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...ACCOPANIED BY
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN...THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WERE
BASED ON BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 27N WILL MEANDER A
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO 26N INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE MON.
WINDS N OF 28N JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
20 KT BRIEFLY LATE MON INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REMAINS OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE N COAST OF HAITI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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