Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 270611
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
111 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY E-SE 15-20
KT RETURN FLOW. EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED BROAD RIDGE TO BEGIN TO
RETRACT E THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NW WATERS THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ...AND IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW...AND NOW
EXPECT 20-25 KT WINDS LATE TONIGHT INCREASING TO 25-30 KT NEAR
24N96W BRIEFLY ON SUN AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE FRONT
WILL MOVE FURTHER E AND STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MEANDERING ALONG
THAT POSITION AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH AT LEAST WED
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE TUE WITH NE 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW AND W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS...NE
15-20 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS AND N-NE 10-15 KT
FLOW OVER THE NE WATERS ON TUE NIGHT-WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS STILL SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A 30
KT MAXIMUM AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. NE-E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 18N
BETWEEN 70-82W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH THIS AREA
SHRINKING TO THE S OF 15N BETWEEN 72-80W BY TUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF NE 20-25
KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SE COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SUN
NIGHT. NE SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY PROPAGATING SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC WATERS NE AND E OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF
7-10 KT. THESE SWELL WILL REACH THE NE AND E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND ALSO REACH PROPAGATE
S TROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS REACHING THE N COAST OF S
AMERICA BETWEEN 55-62W ON TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 27N70W WHERE IT BECOMES BROAD
AND STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST. THESE FRONTAL REMNANTS
WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE
ACROSS BERMUDA REACHING NEAR 30N55W ON SUN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
WSW TO CENTRAL FL. NE-E 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 65W...AND NW-N 15-20 KT CONDITIONS BETWEEN
55-65W...EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF 25 KT WINDS N OF 28N E OF 57W
THROUGH EARLY TODAY. NE-E 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S TO
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N E OF 70W TONIGHT THROUGH TUE....THEN
DIMINISH TO E AT 15 KT ON TUE NIGHT-WED. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E
ON MON NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS
REACHING A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED. EXPECT
ONLY SW-W-NW 1015 WIND SHIFT ALONG THIS FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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