Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 190759
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
259 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front has pushed into the NW Gulf from Texas. The
front currently crosses the NW Gulf from near Pensacola Florida
to south of Brownsville Texas near 25N97W. There is no
significant convection in the vicinity of the front as high
pressure over the Gulf is causing strong subsidence. The front
will extend from Pensacola Florida to Brownsville Texas early
Sunday, from Ft Myers Florida to Veracruz Mexico early Monday,
then push into the southern Gulf and weaken on Tuesday. Buoy and
platform observations indicate sustained winds to gale force
north of the front and west of 90W. Winds in this area should
quickly subside today as high pressure builds SE over Texas.
Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail north and
west of the front today with seas building to 8-10 ft. Winds will
also reach gale force over the favored locations in the Mexican
coastal waters near Tampico and Veracruz on Sun and Sun night,
respectively. Marine conditions will improve significantly Mon
and Tue as the front progresses ESE and weakens. The next cold
front will enter the Gulf on Wed. Models are in general agreement
in spinning up low pressure along the front in the NE Gulf, then
advecting it NE over Florida on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Light to moderate winds generally prevail over the Caribbean as
low pressure moving eastward from the United States weakens the
ridge over the western Atlc. A 1007 mb low is centered north of
Colombia near 13N71W. a trough curves NE from the low through the
Mona Passage. To the NW of the trough, fresh NE winds are
funneling through the Mona and Windward Passages. These winds
will diminish further later today as the high pressure shifts
farther eastward. Expect for the trough and low to remain nearly
stationary over the central Caribbean, but weaken and eventually
dissipate Mon and Tue. The weak pressure gradient should remain
in place over the Caribbean until Thu, when a cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

High pressure centered east of Bermuda is generally maintaining
moderate winds over the forecast waters. NE swell are maintaining
seas around 8 ft well outside of the Bahamas from 25N to 28N E
of 68W. The winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the
high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. The trough will linger
over southeast waters this weekend, then weaken Monday. A cold
front will move off the NE Florida coast this afternoon, extend
from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Mon, before
stalling Tue and lifting northward again through mid week. Strong
SW flow with seas approaching 8 ft will occur ahead of the front
off northeast Florida this morning, followed by fresh to
occasionally strong northerly winds and seas to 8 ft behind the
front in open waters north of 26N through early Mon.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning today.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.



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