Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 011712
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
112 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE HIGH STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. THEN THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E AS A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY JUST INSHORE THE TX COAST TRANSITIONS BACK TO A
COLD FRONT...AND MOVES E OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT. DENSE
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF WATERS AGAIN TODAY...AND IS
DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS TILL THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION
CHANGES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
THE MS DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON EVENING...FROM THE FL BIG
BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE NIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH THE
FL STRAITS ON WED NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE E OFF THE TX
COAST ON WED EVENING REACHING NEAR 26N94W ON THU WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING ESE TO THE FL STRAITS.

EXPECT ONE LAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF
STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS EXPECTED E OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE E ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. FRESH N FLOW
WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST...
INCREASING TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N97W ON MON EVENING THROUGH TUE
EVENING. STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SW
GULF WATERS NEAR 20N96W ON TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO TUE
EVENING. THE POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT
EVERYWHERE LATE THU NIGHT WITH MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP AGAIN ACROSS THE NW GULF ON FRI EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

STRONG ESE TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 11-14N BETWEEN 63-70W
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT...THEN FURTHER
DIMINISH ON MON WITH MODERATE E FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA E OF
75W BY LATE TUE. FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...AND AGAIN BRIEFLY
ON MON AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ON WED AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO FAR NE
NICARAGUA LATE THU BEFORE STALLING. EXPECT ONLY MODERATE N FLOW
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 28N72W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 31N77W. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL STALL E OF 65W
ON MON WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING BACK W OF 65W AND DISSIPATING
ON TUE. A NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS WILL
SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL EARLY
MON...THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FL ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON TUE NIGHT...PRECEDED BY
FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON FRI BEFORE
BEGINNING TO STALL.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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