Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXAK02 KWNH 191755
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 23 2014 - 12Z WED AUG 27 2014


THE 00Z/19 ECMWF LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THE MODEL HAD AN OFF RUN ON THE 12Z/18 DATA CYCLE, SPINNING
UP A GIANT CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM
ITS SPRAWLING, DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA, WITH A
DECIDEDLY FLATTER EVOLUTION TO THE CYCLONE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE MAIN CYCLONE WILL BE AT ITS MOST EXPANSIVE ASTRIDE THE INNER
ALEUTIANS, WITH ITS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY STREAKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF. INSTEAD OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED TRIPLE-POINT LOW OVER THE GULF, A VIGOROUS WARM
FRONT IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.


CISCO

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