Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 241903
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 28 2017 - 12Z SAT APR 01 2017

THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE WITH MEAN RIDGING WEST
OF THE STATE AND INTO SIBERIA. THE UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST/NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME
CROSSING THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY FRIDAY. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH SOME MINOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDED A GOOD FIRST GUESS ON
PLACEMENT BOTH IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS
CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS OF
PLACEMENT...BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DROPPING WELL INTO THE
960S. FOR THIS REASON...A BIT OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS
INCLUDED IN THE BLEND TO DEPICT A STRONGER INTENSITY THAN IS SHOWN
BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE AND THE MANUAL PROGS WERE ADJUSTED
FURTHER TO REFLECT THIS.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE PANHANDLE REGION AND THE SOUTHERN COAST AS A STORM SYSTEM
WEAKENS OVER THE GULF. BY MID-WEEK...ANOTHER AND MUCH STRONGER
STORM APPROACHES THE ALEUTIANS WITH PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
AND PANHANDLE REGION AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST...ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS...AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
REMAINING QUITE COLD.

SANTORELLI

$$





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