Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 291746
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 02 2014 - 12Z WED AUG 06 2014

THE 29/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS
REASONABLY DEPICTED THE MASS FIELD SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ALASKA PROPER THROUGH DAY 6. EVEN FOR DAY 7 AND DAY
8...A BLEND OF THE MEANS ESSENTIALLY MAINTAINED A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN AT HIGH LATITUDE FROM THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO THE THE WESTERNMOST ALEUTIANS.

THE UPSHOT OF THE CURRENT PATTERN---A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE (NORTHWARD) FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS. DAILY PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...THE SOUTHERN
COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR. BUT DRY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AND NORTHWEST COAST.

OF NOTE...THE MEANS ARE AT ODDS (BEYOND DAY 7) IN THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 150W BETWEEN 20N-45N LATITUDE. MAY NOT END UP BEING A MAJOR
FORECAST CONCERN FOR ALASKA...GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MAINTAINS A STRONG FOOTHOLD BETWEEN HAWAI`I AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA.

VOJTESAK




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