Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 241916
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DISCUSSION FROM NOVEMBER 24/00UTC: DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA. THIS IS TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
LATER ON TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
LIFT OVER A RIDGE TO THE EAST AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH SUSTAINS A POLAR FRONT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY-NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST
MEXICO. THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT MOVES TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NORTHERN VERACRUZ...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHERLIES OF
30KT TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
IS TO RACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA-GULF OF MEXICO TO THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ...AND LATER IN THE DAY IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/OAXACA. EARLY ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
FLORIDA/WEST CUBA TO BELIZE...WHILE FRONTAL NORTHERLIES OF 25-30KT
ENVELOP THE SOUTHERN GULF-YUCATAN PENINSULA-NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
LATER ON WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FURTHERMORE...AS THE FRONT
SURGES ACROSS CUBA IT IS TO TRIGGER A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THIS WILL MOVE TO
HAITI-JAMAICA WHILE TRAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO COSTA
RICA. AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...NORTHERLIES WILL
SURGE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 35-45KT OVER NICARAGUA

AS THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO IT IS TO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 10MM. THE MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS TABASCO-SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ LATER ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN MAXIMA IS
TO PEAK 35-70MM. THIS SPREADS ACROSS GUATEMALA DURING THE DAY.
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS THE FRONT IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE OVER
CUBA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM. MOST INTENSE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA-LA CEIBA IN HONDURAS...WHERE
STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
75-100MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 200-300MM. SHEAR LINE RELATED
CONVECTION IS TO THEN CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO COSTA
RICA...WHERE THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THIS IS TO RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

DOWNSTREAM FROM POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA...A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RIDGE PATTERN IS TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT THEN STARTS TO ERODE AS POLAR TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT OVER THIS AXIS LATER IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE THIS IS TO
CONTINUE FAVORING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES AS WELL AS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT
LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
SUSTAINS A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. AS COOL AIR ADVECTS OVER WARM WATERS THIS FAVORS
GENERATION OF EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A CLOUD CLUSTER EMBEDS IN THIS FLOW...AND IT IS
TO PULL ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES TO THE VIRGIN
ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS TO THEN
CONTINUE WEST ACROSS JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THIS IS TO SUSTAIN SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM.

ACROSS NICARAGUA TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM...WHILE OVER COSTA
RICA-PANAMA ITCZ RELATED ACTIVITY IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THE ANDEAN REGION OF
COLOMBIA INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BUT AS THE POLAR TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
GULF...AND THE PANAMANIAN LOW DEEPENS THIS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS
CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A TUTT IS TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TUTT IS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST STEER SUCCESSIVE VORTICES AROUND THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY A CLOSED LOW IS TO FORM JUST EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE BASE OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS IS TO THEN
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF VENEZUELA TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE MOST
ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA/SURINAME TO NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
43W     46W    48W    51W    53W    55W    57W    59W   TUTT INDCD

TUTT IS TO ALSO INDUCE AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES.
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH
OF 10N...TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER ON THURSDAY.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$





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