Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 301600
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 03 2015 - 12Z TUE JUL 07 2015

WPC MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 3-7 SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS
HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF COMPATABLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE 00 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. ALSO
INCLUDED DETERMINISTIC INPUT FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF TO PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL CONSISTENT WITH A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PATTERN
PREDICTABILITY. THE 00 UTC GFS WAS ALSO COMPATABLE OVER MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48.

A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
VORTS OVER MID-LATITUDES FROM THE CENTRAL TO ERN US INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOULD PROMOTE A LINGERING WAVY FRONT CENTERED AROUND
35-40N. THIS SHOULD FOCUS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR REPEAT HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH MORE
LIMITED WARM SECTOR SRN TIER US CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. MOISTURE
INFLUX SHOULD ALSO FUEL PERIODS OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION SPREAD
ACROSS THE SW US AND GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES IN THIS PATTERN.

MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS GRADUALLY
ESEWD FROM WRN CANADA FRI TO S-CENTRAL CANADA/N-CENTRAL US IN
ABOUT A WEEK. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
TRANSLATION SHOULD DRIVE A COOLING AND CONVECTION FOCUSING
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM THOUGH THE N-CENTRAL US WHILE ACTING TO
PULL MOISTURE AND THE LEADING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL FOCUS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHICHTEL








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