Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 061229
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

VALID 00Z SAT MAR 07 2015 - 00Z SAT MAR 14 2015

SHORT RANGE...
THE `WINTER` WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND HAWAI`I
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS 7-DAY PACKAGE. THE SHORT-TERM TREND
CONTINUES TO OFFER A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE
AIRMASS IS MORE MID-LATITUDE RATHER THAN THE TRADE
WIND-DERIVED---WITH A CLOSED 500MB LOW (INVOF 36N 153W) AND SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THROUGH THE
NEXT 84 HOURS---THE CUTOFF LOW AND ITS MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SEASONAL TRADE WIND FLOW AT BAY. THOUGHT THE 6/00Z ECMWF/ECENS
WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE DAY 1-3 FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE...
THE 6/00Z FORECAST CYCLE---INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN
HAVE RESOLVED SOME FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC. FOR HAWAI`I AND THE
SUBTROPICS, AGREEMENT IS FOR ONE 500MB CUTOFF LOW INVOF 36N 153W
(AT 9/12Z) WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA
(~12/00Z TIME FRAME)---AND BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM ALONG 165W. THIS DAY `6-ISH` (12/12Z) SYSTEM AND TROUGH
REINFORCES A MID-LATITUDE LIKE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND AIRMASS
ACROSS HAWAI`I. THE 6/00Z ECENS AND NAEFS EQUALLY REPRESENT THE
DAY 5-7 FLOW PATTERN.

VOJTESAK

$$





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