Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 091221
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
820 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

VALID 00Z THU JUL 10 2014 - 00Z THU JUL 17 2014

QUIET PATTERN IN STORE FOR HAWAI`I THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLOWLY
SLACKENING TRADES AND BELOW CLIMO PW VALUES (1.00-1.25 INCHES). BY
NEXT WEEK, THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGING TO THE NW OF THE STATE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BUILDS. IN THE
LOWER LATITUDES, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE NEAR 15N/145W PER THE NHC LATE FRIDAY BUT ITS MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD/NORTHWESTWARD. THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
RISE IN PW VALUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS STARTING EARLY
SUNDAY TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
JULY VALUES. THE EC MEMBERS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GEFS
MEMBERS (ABOUT 0.25 INCHES ON AVERAGE) NEAR THE BIG ISLAND BUT
VICE VERSA FOR THE NW ISLANDS (WITH VALUES PEAKING MOSTLY AROUND
1.50 INCHES BUT AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES PER THE ENSEMBLES). A BLEND
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE RAIN THREAT OVER THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK.


FRACASSO

$$





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