Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 051206
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
806 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

VALID 00Z MON JUL 06 2015 - 00Z MON JUL 13 2015

THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL REASONABLY AGREE THAT LIGHT
ISLAND TRADES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALONG WITH
LIMITED SEA BREEZE BASED SHOWERS UNDER A LINGERING MEAN WEAKNESS
ALOFT. TRADES SHOULD REACH MODERATE LEVELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER
THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE
BRISK TRADE FLOW AND TERRAIN BASED LIFT. GRADIENTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM
APPROACH THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING MONITIRED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS NOW BREWING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION BUBBLING IN THE
GENESIS AREA. GFS/ECMWF/CMC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFER
ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CLUSTERING AND IMPLIED PREDICTABILITY WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SCHICHTEL

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