Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 191215
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
814 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 00Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 00Z MON OCT 27 2014

...`ANA` CONTINUES TO BE A SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT...

THE 19/00Z ECENS/GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS
ANCHOR BOTH SIDES OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY
3---AND EASILY FIT WITHIN THE CURRENT CPHC FORECAST FOR `ANA`.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER (CPHC) FOR ALL THE LATEST INFORMATION ON `ANA`.

THE FORECAST FOR HAWAI`I SETTLES DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE AND ANCHORS
ALONG 30N LATITUDE THROUGH THE END OF DAY 7 (NEXT SUNDAY).

OF NOTE, THE POLEWARD RE-CURVATURE OF `ANA` AND ITS ENTRAINMENT
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ON/AFTER DAY 5 REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING---ITS
MIGRATION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. RELIED ON THE 19/00Z ECENS MEAN FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR DAYS 6-7 TO HANDLE THE WIDE VARIETY OF
POSSIBILITIES.

VOJTESAK

$$




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