Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 212001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20061211 - 20051228 - 19941216 - 19941225 - 19861224

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20061210 - 20051227 - 19870102 - 19941224 - 19861227

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 27 - 31, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    B


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 29, 2014 - JAN 04, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    B
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    B
MASS        N    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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