Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 102001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 10 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2016

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE BEING SEA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
ALASKA, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE
TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART
DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR SMALL PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERN U.S. WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA, WITH
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, AS WELL AS
FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTHEAST. THE ODDS TILT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE EASTERN TROUGH AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EAST AND
ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2016

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS (ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), WHILE A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. JET ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED TO
UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE
MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WEAKENS, A
WARMER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE IS RELATIVELY POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. A STRENGTHENING  SOUTHERN JET
STREAM AND A PREDICTED STORM TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TILT THE ODDS TO
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770217 - 19860126 - 19950202 - 19540207 - 19780220


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770217 - 19860125 - 19540207 - 19950202 - 19610120


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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