Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FXUS06 KWBC 291902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 29 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 09 2015

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AMERICA
DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CONTINENT, WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAY`S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS
COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND BASED LARGELY ON
CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW
CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. THE
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE
PREDICTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE LEADING TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THIS REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF NORTH AMERICA, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD FOCUS
SHORT-WAVE ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, ELEVATING CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR A WIDE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLANS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY, NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST, FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ALASKA AND
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST RIDGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 13 2015

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
OVER THE EAST PART OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE ALASKA AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE.

A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS, THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF NORTH AMERICA, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6-10 DAYS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LONGER LEAD
TIME.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY`S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT.

FORECASTER: LUKE HE

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530709 - 20070704 - 19890610 - 20060623 - 19560708


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530709 - 19890609 - 20060622 - 20070703 - 20060627


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 09 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    N
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    N
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.