Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXSA20 KWBC 031300
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM MAY 03 AT 0000 UTC): AT 200 HPA...A NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW NOW ENVELOPS CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF
20S...WITH AN ILL ORGANIZED CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
CONFINING TO NORTHEAST BRASIL. THE LATTER IS VENTING DEEP DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRASIL INTO PARA TO THE WEST.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR JET ALONG 68S
109W...67S 90W...EXITING AT 60S 83W. IT REFORMS AT 58S 65W ALONG A
122KT MAXIMA AT 51S 52W...43S 45W...43S 33W...49S 21W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR JET FORMS AT 29S 94W ALONG 35S 91W...EXITING AT 40S
84W. IT REFORMS AT 41S 71W ALONG 35S 60W...35S 48W...35S 36W...37S
23W...A 138KT MAXIMA AT 42S 13W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ALONG
A 176KT MAXIMA AT 31S 118W...A 146KT MAXIMA AT 26S 107W...23S
98W...24S 92W...EXITING AT 29S 85W. IT REFORMS AT 35S 73W EXITING
AT 28S 59W. IT REFORMS AT 23S 35W ALONG 29S 24W EXITING AT 35S 11W.

AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS PRESSING
AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM A
CLOSED LOW AT 43S 100W...THEN ALONG 30S 100W...TO 20S 102W. THE
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM 20S 78W...THEN ALONG 40S 80W...TO 65S
110W. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LATTER...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS LIFTING ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/DRAKE
PASSAGE...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
PULLING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARGENTINA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES
OF BRASIL. FARTHER EAST...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH
BETWEEN 50W-10W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 986 HPA OCCLUDED LOW AT 66S 70W
EXTENDING A FRONT INTO A 990 HPA LOW AT 65S 65W...60S 72W...59S
86W. A 1025 HPA HIGH CENTERS AT 52S 80W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO A
BROADER 1025 HPA POLAR HIGH AT 39S 63W. A 1018 HPA LOW AT 35S 49W
EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG 33S 53W...33S 60W...33S 66W...A 1016 HPA LOW
AT 36S 72W...34S 76W...A WARM FRONT ALONG 39S 79W...A 1006 HPA LOW
AT 42S 88W. A 1018 HPA LOW AT 21S 30W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG 18S
34W...A 1018 HPA LOW AT 15S 39W...15S 42W...17S 48W. A SHEAR LINE
EXTENDS FROM 78S 31W ALONG 14S 35W...EXITING AT 10S 39W. LIGHT
RAIN IS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF BAHIA.

AYALA...DINAC (PARAGUAY)
ENRIQUEZ...DGAC (ECUADOR)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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