Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXSA20 KWBC 081602
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1101 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM FEB 08 AT 0000 UTC): AT 200 HPA THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS RELOCATING TOWARDS MID PORTIONS OF THE
CONTINENT. IT NOW CENTERS ON A HIGH OVER THE PARAGUAYAN CHACO AND
EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG THE ALTIPLANO INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ECUADOR/NORTHERN PERU. THIS IS VENTILATING DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN AMAZON INTO THE PERUVIAN ANDES AND THE
ALTIPLANO. TO THE EAST...THE CAVADO DO NORDESTE CENTERS OVER
NORTHERN BAHIA/W PERNAMBUCO. A VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN BRASIL. THIS IS CONSTRAINING
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRASIL...AREAS WEST OF CENTRAL
PARA...AND AREAS TO THE SW OF CENTRAL GOIAS/CENTRAL MINAS
GERAIS/RIO DE JANEIRO.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NORTHERN POLAR JET EXTENDING
ALONG A 145KT MAXIMA AT 56S 122W...A 151KT MAXIMA AT 57S 109W...A
135KT MAXIMA AT 54S 90W...EXITING AT 46S 76W. IT REFORMS AT 55S
66W ALONG 61S 50W...53S 35W...47S 30W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS TWO
BRANCHES...ONE FORMS AT 30S 76W ALONG 39S 66W...A 127KT MAXIMA AT
43S 47W...A 131KT MAXIMA AT 42S 40W...EXITING AT 38S 30W. ANOTHER
BRANCH FORMS AT 24S 73W ALONG 34S 65W...40S 49W...36S
38W...EXITING AT 30S 33W.

AT 500 HPA...A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED IN TRHIS TROUGH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH ALONG 80W INTO 48S. THIS IW APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CONE. TO THE EAST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTH OF THE FALKLANDS/MALVINAS INTO 33S 52W...WHILE A RIDGE
EXTENDS TO ITS WEST SOUTH INTO THE WEDDELL SEA. IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
FROM 30S 75W NORTHWEST INTO 22S 85W. THIS TROUGH IS LEADING TO A
SPILL OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARGENTINA...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH ORGANIZING SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 982 HPA LOW AT 62S 69W...58S 67W...A
994 HPA LOW AT 54S 76W...48S 79W...47S 85W. A 992 HPA LOW EXTENDS
A FRONT ALONG 58S 49W...A 994 HPA LOW AT 54S 66W...52S 68W...A 998
HPA LOW AT 51S 72W...45S 77W...43S 94W. A 1025 HPA HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 37S 91W. A 1008 HPA LOW CENTERS AT 45S
54W. THIS EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG 42S 56W...41S 63W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EVOLVING INTO A COLD FRONT WHILE EXTENDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE INTO CORDOBA...AND A 1002 HPA LOW
AT 30S 66W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH.
TO THE NORTHEAST A FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29S 30W...28S 46W...29S 53W.

ENRIQUEZ...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
LOPEZ...SMN (ARGENTINA)
GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)

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