Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 242000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

VALID 00Z TUE JUL 25 2017 - 00Z THU JUL 27 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


A STRONG FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  BY TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT PROFESSES
EASTWARD, THESE STORMS COULD BRING FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS
AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SET OFF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA--IGNITING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST--KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ROCKIES WHILE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE GREAT BASIN.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STALLS.  WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON TAP AND DAYTIME HEATING, MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST AREAS.


REINHART

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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