Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 032056
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VALID 00Z WED MAR 4 2015 - 00Z FRI MAR 6 2015

***MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE ROCKIES TO EAST
COAST***

***QUITE COLD BY THE END OF THE WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES***

A MULTI-FACETED WINTER STORM WILL MAKE ITS TREK ACROSS THE COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A STRONG COLD FRONT INTERCEPTING A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THERE WILL BE TWO
MAIN EPISODES OF WEATHER ALONG WITH BOUNDARY.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL FEATURE A SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS NORTHWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN RAIN BEING THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONFINED WELL TO
THE NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS TEXAS AND EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND EPISODE WILL BE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  THIS
TIME, THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE COLD AIR AVAILABLE, AND SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE ADVANCING COLD AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, A LATE-SEASON SNOWSTORM IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT.  AFTER THIS PRECIPITATION DEPARTS
THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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