Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 280757
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 28 2017 - 12Z THU MAR 02 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S....

...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST...

...ENHANCED WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
90S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES. BESIDES WARM TEMPERATURES,
OTHER INGREDIENTS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OF ALL TYPES FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, INCLUDING TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED LOCATIONS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO MUCH OF INDIANA
WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A WILD
FIRE THREAT TODAY BEHIND A DRYLINE WHICH WILL EXTEND NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. WINDS COULD GUST TO 60
MPH FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WEST TEXAS.

AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST FOR WEDNESDAY, THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT
EAST, AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE VERY COLD AIR IS LOCKED UP IN
NORTHERN CANADA FOR THE TIME BEING.

WINTER WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO
SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN STORM
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY BELOW 6 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

AFTER LIGHT COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST
TODAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD WEEK`S END.

OTTO


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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