Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-281430-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
626 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...THIS WEEK IS HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK FOR 2015...

ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE INFORMATIVE
MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR THE HURRICANE SEASON. EACH DAY WE
WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC. TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: THE PRIMARY MISSION OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS TO SAVE LIVES
AND PROTECT PROPERTY BY ISSUING WATCHES...WARNINGS...FORECASTS...AND
ANALYSES OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS. IN THE LAST
15 YEARS HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED. HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS ARE MORE RELIABLE TODAY THAN EVER
AND MORE ACCURATE FORECASTS MEAN BETTER PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE
STORM STRIKES.

OBSERVATION: WHEN FORECASTING AND WARNING FOR HURRICANES...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USES ALL OF THE TOOLS IN ITS OBSERVATIONAL
ARSENAL.  SATELLITES...BUOYS...AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND MODEL DATA ARE
ALL IMPORTANT TOOLS USED FOR HURRICANE TRACKING AND PREDICTION.
WHILE HURRICANES ARE STILL OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...INDIRECT
MEASUREMENTS OF THE STORMS INTENSITY AND BEHAVIOR ARE MADE
PRIMARILY VIA ADVANCED SATELLITES... ALTHOUGH SHIPS AND BUOYS
PROVIDE SOME OBSERVATIONS. ONCE THE STORM FALLS WITHIN RANGE OF
AIRCRAFT MORE DIRECT MEASUREMENTS ARE TAKEN BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...AND MEASUREMENTS OF WINDS...PRESSURE...AND EVEN OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE COLLECTED. WITHIN ABOUT 200 MILES OF THE
COAST...RADAR PROVIDES IMPORTANT MEASUREMENTS OF THE STORM. THE
COMPUTER MODELS THAT ARE USED TO FORECAST STORM INTENSITY AND
MOVEMENT REQUIRE A GREAT DEAL OF DATA ABOUT THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDING
ALL THE OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITES...AIRCRAFT...SHIPS AND RADAR.

MODEL GUIDANCE: COMPUTER MODELS TAKE ALL THE VARIOUS OBSERVATIONS
AND PERFORM MILLIONS OF CALCULATIONS TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS OF
HURRICANE BEHAVIOR. THE ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
IS VERY IMPORTANT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AND MOTION. THE SOLUTION
FROM THESE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PACKAGED AS GUIDANCE AND EVALUATED BY
HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS WELL AS
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. HURRICANE
FORECASTERS MUST LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODEL RESULTS...WHICH FREQUENTLY
GIVE WIDELY DIFFERENT PICTURES OF THE FUTURE. WHEN THE MODELS
DISAGREE...HURRICANE FORECASTERS MUST USE THEIR EXPERIENCE AND
JUDGMENT TO DECIDE WHICH MODEL IS PERFORMING THE BEST UNDER THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. A GOOD FORECASTER HAS AN EXTENSIVE EDUCATION IN
THE SCIENCE OF METEOROLOGY AND CONSIDERABLE EXPERIENCE IN TROPICAL
FORECASTING. FORECASTERS RECOGNIZE THAT CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY. THIS IS WHY FORECASTS TALK ABOUT "PROBABILITIES" AND
"MARGIN OF ERROR."

PRODUCT GENERATION: ONCE FORECASTS...WATCHES...AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN COORDINATED ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GENERATES THE HURRICANE FORECAST AND WARNING
PRODUCTS. HURRICANE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED 4 TIMES A DAY WHEN
HURRICANES ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CARIBBEAN SEA...OR
GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED AT 5 AM... 11 AM... 5
PM... AND 11 PM EDT.

INFORMATION DISSEMINATION: ALL OF THIS HURRICANE FORECAST AND
WARNING INFORMATION IS SENT OUT TO ALL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR RELAY TO
EVERYONE. TELEVISION...RADIO...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO ARE SOME OF
THE BEST MEANS TO GET THE MOST UP TO DATE HURRICANE INFORMATION. THE
INTERNET CAN ALSO BE A GREAT SOURCE OF INFORMATION, INCLUDING THE
WEB SITES OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV, YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV, AND NORTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AT
HTTP://READYNC.ORG.

YOUR LOCAL RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE: THE ROLE OF THE
RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IS TO TAKE THE HURRICANE
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCALIZE THE THREAT
TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
CLOSELY EXAMINES THE THREATS OF WIND...TORNADOES...RAINFALL...AND
FLOODING. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO LOCAL AND STATE EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AS WELL AS THE MEDIA. THE RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL ISSUE RIVER FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO
HELP SAVE LIVES FROM FLOOD WATERS THAT OCCUR AFTER A HURRICANE DROPS
TORRENTIAL RAIN. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL ALSO BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AS FORECASTERS DETECT THEM ON THE
DOPPLER RADAR.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS...PLEASE VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEB SITES:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/PREPARE
HTTP://WWW.READYNC.ORG

$$


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