Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 302034
PWSEP3

HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

20N 135W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 140W       34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 140W       34  1  17(18)  13(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
20N 140W       50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  32(36)  31(67)   1(68)   X(68)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  23(30)   X(30)   X(30)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)

25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)  24(61)   1(62)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  16(25)   X(25)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)

25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  34(54)   2(56)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   1(22)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   1(15)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   6(33)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   9(24)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   9(22)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
BRADSHAW AAF   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  10(20)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
KAILUA-KONA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  15(26)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)
21N 158W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)
JOINT BASE PHH 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.