Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 220833
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

L CARDENAS     34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  34(40)   7(47)   1(48)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   4(18)   X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  43(62)   6(68)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)   5(35)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   4(22)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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