Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 191436
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1034 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...VALID 15Z TUE SEP 19 2017 - 12Z WED SEP 20 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW K46D 20 SE CWZE 35 NNE CWOJ 20 ENE CWEA 15 ESE FGN
25 N FOZ 15 E XVG 10 SE MML 20 WSW OTG 30 WNW LRJ 15 W FSD
30 SW BKX 25 ESE HON 40 NNE HON 10 ENE ABR 30 W K2D5 10 NNW K46D.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
120 ESE ACY 65 ESE ACY 45 SE MJX 25 E BLM FRG BDR MMK
10 SSE FIT 25 SE PSM 70 NE PVC 100 ENE CQX.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
75 SSE HTO 40 SSE FOK FOK 15 SE IJD SFZ 10 WNW PVC 35 ENE CQX
60 E ACK.


1500 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MN.  THIS WAS TO COVER THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL QPF ACROSS THESE
AREAS.

ORAVEC

INITIAL DISCUSSION

...HURRICANE JOSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC...


...SRN/SERN NEW ENGLAND...

WITH THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE APPROACH OF JOSE...WAA
PATTERN/WRAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAINS ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL NRN MID-ATLANTIC...WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
ESPECIALLY FAVORING AREAS FROM ERN LONG ISLAND INTO SE MA AS
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY/AMOUNTS INCREASE. A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE
NHC TRACK OF JOSE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FAVORS TIGHTER
MOISTURE/PCPN GRADIENT ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY. THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE
SUPPORTED BY GENERAL OFFSHORE MODEL TRENDS OF THE LAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES. EVEN SO...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF RUNOFF ISSUES
WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND.


...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL
EJECT NEWD OVER THE N-CENTRAL US AS KICKER UPSTREAM S/WV ENERGY
AND POWERFUL JET DIGS FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO THE PACIFIC NW. A
LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL US AS AMPLE
ENERGY ALOFT WORKS OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW STRONG RETURN SRLY
FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN WHERE A NARROW
AXIS OF 1.5-1.75" PWS POOL INTO A REGION UNDER A COUPLED UPPER
JET. INCREASING LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD COMBINE WITH TRIPLE
POINT ENHANCED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG
CONVECTION AND A QUICK FEW INCHES OF RAIN THAT OFFERS A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES.

SCHICHTEL
$$





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