Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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158
FOUS30 KWBC 030033
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
833 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE MAY 03 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 03 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE ACY MFV 10 ESE 9W7 15 W MQI 10 ESE ISO 30 SSW FLO HQU
25 SW OPN 25 NNW DHN 10 NW VPS BFM 50 NNW GZH 25 E EET 30 SW RHP
35 NNE AVL ROA 10 SE OKV 10 SE MDT TTN 20 ENE ACY.



...SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...

21-00Z UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK REGION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH HAD SEEN CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER AND AN UPTICK IN DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF MIXED-LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
1500-2000+ J/KG...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER). ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WHICH SHOULD
BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER THIS EVENING EAST OF THE MTNS WITH THE
INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT (RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS)...INCREASING
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (FRONTOGENETIC) UPPER JET FORCING...AND
ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...THE UPTICK IN
S/SW LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL AS WELL AS DYNAMICAL
PROFILE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING...K INDICES IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG...PWS CLIMBING TO 1.5+ INCHES...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 10000 FT...WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE CELLS
MERGE/TRAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT.

HURLEY

$$





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