Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 302037
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VALID 00Z SAT OCT 01 2016 - 00Z TUE OCT 04 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL-NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AS TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS
WEEKEND.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING THE
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN MODEL
SPREAD AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY QUICKLY INCREASE WITH THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW ONCE THE TROUGH PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A POSSIBLE
SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A FASTER SOLUTION THAN
WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS (FOR MORE DETAILS ON MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO THE PMDHMD).  THE
WPC ENSEMBLE BLEND SUGGESTS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING FOUR INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE UINTAS OF NORTHERN UTAH
AND NORTHWEST WYOMING ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
OREGON...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THE SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF
IDAHO.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

GERHARDT



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