Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 020744
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

VALID 12Z THU OCT 2 2014 - 12Z SUN OCT 5 2014


...SNOW...

FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S., THE
PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS WORTH NOTING
HERE.

ON DAY 1, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
MONTANA, NORTHWEST WYOMING, AND THE BIGHORNS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING OTHER THAN THE TERRAIN AND
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK.

THE OTHER LOCATION OF INTEREST IS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON DAY 2.  THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  A DYNAMIC POLAR SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WHILE DEVELOPING A CLOSED 500MB LOW.  IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW, SOME DYNAMIC COOLING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN AN EARLY SEASON EVENT LIKE
THIS IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE.  IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT THAT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE IN THIS SITUATION.  AT THIS
TIME, WE EXPECT FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS
REGION, AND THIS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON SNOWFALL RATES.  THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND CENTRAL ONTARIO.


...ICE...

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.


HAMRICK

$$




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