Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 25/1200 UTC THRU MAR 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...EAST-CENTRAL US...

GUIDANCE STILL REASONABLY AGREES THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL STEADILY PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
STATES DAY1 WHILE TAKING ON MORE NEGATIVE TILT. A SWIRLED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY ALONG/N OF THE LOW TRACK FORGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATELY HEAVY LOCAL PRECIP TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1". FARTHER
SOUTH...ACTIVE BANDED CONVECTION SHOULD STILL FLOURISH INTO DAY1
AS HEIGHT FALLS AIDED BY TX SHORTWAVE APPROACH...INSTABILITY...AND
GULF OF MEXICO AND MID-LEVEL ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION AS PER
AN ENHANCED LLJ FUELS DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
AS PER SPC. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SUSPECT THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH
SOME TRAINING/RUNOFF POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO FLOURISH IN AN AREA
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES AND WITH TERRAIN LIFT INTO THE FAR SRN APPALACHIANS. SOME
QUICK LOCALLY HEAVY 2-3" AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH OVERALL
SYSTEM PROGRESSION ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.
ACTIVITY LIFTING FURTHER NORTHWARD WILL FEED INTO THE MID-LOWER OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST TO A PIVOT POINT CENTERING AROUND SRN LAKE MI.
ADDITIONAL 1-2" AMOUNTS AND SOME RUNNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LONGER DURATION ACTIVITY. FAVORABLE LEAD THETAE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO SPREAD PCPN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ESEWD TO THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENG. THIS MAY SUPPORT MORE MODEST PRECIP
TOTALS. OVERALL WPC DAY 1 QPF LEANED HEAVILY ON WPC CONTINUITY
BLENDED WITH ARW/SSEO MEAN GUIDANCE FOR UPDATED DETAILS.

...WRN U.S...

MDTLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF APCHG THE WEST COAST IS FCST TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACRS THE WRN U.S. DURING THE DAY 1 PD WITH TROF
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..WITH STGR
JET ENERGY FOCUSING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF THRU THE SRN GT
BASIN INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM...STILL WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS IT
MOVES ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDS ACRS THE PAC NW WITH
MODEST COASTAL SHOWERS AND HIER ELEV SNOWS. FARTHER EAST..LIGHT TO
SPOTTY MDT QPF AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE ASSOCD PAC FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE ROCKIES. HEIGHT
FALLS AND LIFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SOME MODERATE WINTERY PCPN TOTALS INTO THE WASATCH AND N-CENTRAL
ROCKIES. FOR MOST AREAS...CONTINUITY WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 509230 509225 508220 506213 503206 499200 494197 489200
      484204 476204 453213 440214 434216 429220 419228 414232
      409237 405241 403245 404248 405251 410252 417253 430251
      442249 455247 463247 470249 485255 490262 492265 495266
      498264 497261 494253 490247 494241 496238 497240 502238
      506232 509230
 0.01 514187 513183 514182 513178 514173 512158 510154 506149
      502144 496142 492137 488132 484128 479129 476132 471134
      470137 467138 466132 463132 462130 465125 467121 465115
      471105 471094 469089 465077 463073 463068 466061 479040
      492022 495015 495005 498001 501995 506982 507978 507972
      507967 506964 506960 503959 498962 492970 479989 471999
      463006 455012 445019 423027 411021 403016 400020 403024
      407028 408031 407036 406038 402039 398039 395037 392034
      387035 381035 378040 377045 375047 373049 369050 360049
      358049 358052 359058 363060 362066 362072 365079 366086
      370090 366094 361097 360101 362107 365112 367117 366120
      365119 360121 356117 348112 346111 345114 345120 351131
      360140 361154 363160 364162 367160 375154 379159 381165
      385168 391169 396169 399169 402172 406172 408170 408166
      408162 411162 414160 411155 410152 412151 415153 417160
      422162 425148 426137 430134 435132 439136 439140 435145
      436150 439156 442160 443166 446173 449177 446180 443183
      441185 440189 441196 442200 444201 446196 444195 444190
      448194 451194 466177 471173 477177 480178 481180 487184
      495192 500191 505192 514187
 0.01 525928 526926 526923 526920 526918 525915 525913 525910
      524910 523912 522913 521914 521915 520918 520919 519921
      519923 519926 520928 520929 522930 523930 525929 525928
 0.01 481882 481874 480867 479859 478854 477846 476841 471830
      460813 454803 451799 449792 446760 445744 443729 442723
      440717 437702 435695 431694 426691 423691 423696 419697
      417697 414696 410697 409700 407706 404711 401711 398714
      395724 393730 394739 393745 394750 395758 397763 399769
      400777 399782 398785 396786 390793 387799 392799 395795
      403788 407790 410792 411794 413809 412816 410822 410825
      408826 404829 399828 395827 387822 379816 375814 371809
      368806 362806 353810 321831 309833 299838 290854 283873
      277880 277893 277902 279907 280915 284925 286935 293936
      299935 307931 314927 320926 325925 332924 337922 349922
      352925 354931 360938 361945 364950 368957 385966 393970
      404971 416971 423964 430956 434947 437935 440931 444928
      450928 454926 459928 465928 470920 473915 475910 477904
      479896 481882
 0.01 393209 394205 393202 388199 380192 370184 363183 357183
      351185 347189 343192 340197 340201 341203 344207 349211
      355210 356205 355202 357201 360201 365201 373202 379204
      386207 393209
 0.01 401097 402092 399093 391093 385095 381096 378098 374103
      368108 374113 382111 384110 389110 396108 400102 401097
 0.01 382058 381056 379056 377055 375055 374055 372055 370057
      372059 372062 373063 375063 376062 377062 379061 380060
      381059 382058
 0.01 343182 343177 342175 343171 341168 339167 336167 332166
      330166 332167 336168 339170 340172 341175 341179 341182
      343182
 0.01 295809 293805 289801 285801 283800 280798 279794 275795
      275799 272800 268801 268804 273807 278809 284809 287809
      289810 295809
 0.01 265800 261796 260786 259778 257775 254774 250775 248777
      250781 252786 253791 251794 247793 245791 240787 234788
      231794 234808 235815 238816 242816 245821 246819 247815
      250813 252814 258812 262807 265801 265800
 0.25 469860 469853 467850 464844 460838 455832 451825 447817
      444808 441801 435782 431774 430771 426770 422777 420785
      419796 419802 420808 420821 419829 416837 413845 409850
      408852 406851 403849 390842 384836 378832 373830 367827
      364819 362815 359814 353817 345822 336832 330837 325842
      320847 312849 302849 296853 293862 290868 286883 285903
      284911 287918 290921 293922 301924 306923 312918 323909
      330905 337904 342908 348911 355910 358910 362912 364914
      365919 368927 373934 379937 395939 405949 413950 416949
      419946 428935 433928 436922 440916 443907 449892 453884
      458879 465871 469860
 0.25 464099 463091 459085 454071 451065 449061 445062 439064
      435069 436073 438076 442081 444084 448084 451085 453088
      451095 445098 439100 436102 435104 435109 437112 443115
      447116 453112 456107 461102 464099
 0.25 417114 412108 410101 409098 407099 404107 401112 398115
      399118 398120 395122 389125 380132 374129 371130 370133
      369138 370141 372145 375146 379143 383138 388134 394131
      404125 407119 413116 417114
 0.25 407757 407754 405754 405755 405756 407757 407757
 0.25 404065 404063 403061 403060 402058 400058 398057 397057
      396060 396061 397062 398063 400064 400065 401067 403066
      404065
 0.25 383076 382074 381073 380073 378072 377071 376071 375073
      376075 376076 378077 379077 381077 383076
 0.50 452869 448864 446858 447849 446838 435806 431788 427784
      425784 425789 424797 426805 429814 428824 426841 424850
      420855 416859 407860 400858 396855 391854 387854 382852
      380850 379845 375840 365832 360828 359824 358820 350822
      345826 341831 338837 334841 329846 323850 316853 309855
      304855 298857 296864 293869 292877 290885 289890 290895
      288902 287910 287915 289917 296919 302917 309913 314911
      320907 329898 335895 342894 347897 351903 367905 372918
      378921 381927 384928 388927 394924 400921 407919 409916
      413916 418912 424909 428917 432917 434914 438907 441892
      444884 446879 450874 452869
 0.50 402899 399892 399887 399883 399878 395876 389872 388871
      384872 379874 377875 379877 382882 385886 392887 396890
      399892 399897 402899
 1.00 433876 434873 434871 433869 432866 431866 430864 429863
      428863 426864 425864 424867 423869 423872 423874 424876
      425878 426879 427879 428880 430880 432879 432878 433876
      433876
 1.00 395911 394908 392906 391908 392911 391913 389914 388915
      387917 387918 389920 391921 392920 393920 393917 393915
      393913 394911 395911
 1.00 364854 361848 357844 353839 353830 349830 347832 345839
      343846 340851 336856 334861 337867 337870 334871 327869
      326863 323861 319861 311861 306863 300866 296880 294885
      293890 295893 297894 297897 293901 291907 296910 302908
      307905 317900 327893 339888 352885 350875 350868 353863
      364854
 1.50 341878 339877 338877 336877 334876 333876 332876 330876
      330877 331878 332879 334878 336878 338878 339878 341878
 1.50 326879 323876 319875 314873 308874 305878 301880 300884
      300887 304886 307886 311884 314882 318881 323879 326879
 1.50 315894 315892 315890 313888 311889 309889 308890 307891
      306892 306895 304896 304897 302899 304900 306899 308898
      309897 311897 312896 313895 315894 315894

$$





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