Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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074
FXUS04 KWBC 221901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 23/0000 UTC THRU MAY 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD-SCALE
UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER NM WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE BROAD 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH
TX/SOUTHERN OK. THE STRENGTH OF THE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE AND AND
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES 3-4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING IN NORTH TEXAS ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL OK.  THE MAX
QPF WAS DRAWN WHERE THESE ANOMALIES ARE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED
RIVER. THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT...AS THE LOW LEVEL S/SSW INFLOW INCREASES TO 40-50 KTS...
MUCAPES CLIMB TO 1000-1500 J/KG...AND PW ANOMALIES RISE TO AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

WPC UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF.  HOWEVER AS PER THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CANADIAN REGIONAL
MODEL HAD THE HIGHEST QPF AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE ON HEAVY RAIN
NORTH-SOUTH IN CENTRAL TX LOOKS EXCESSIVE...SO WAS GIVEN THE LEAST
WEIGHT.

...CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

THE INITIAL 700 MB SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ACROSS SD TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA ON SAT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTER WY TONIGHT AND
EXTENDING ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS INTO NORTHEAST CO.

THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUXES
AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS SAT.  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE STATE.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL QPF
ALTHOUGH CUT BACK AMOUNTS A LITTLE AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO THE
SOUTH IN OK/TX MAY INTERRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE.


...CALIFORNIA/OREGON...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST INTO
NV/UT/ADJACENT SOUTHERN ID WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB
VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION
LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THAT REGION. THIS COINCIDES WITH A
MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE RANGES
OF NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/NORTHERN NV/NORTHERN UT
COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MOVE SLOWLY.  MANUAL QPF USED
A MULTI-MODEL/09Z SREF MEAN BLEND.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 562853 562855 562858 562861 562858 562856 562853 562850
551786 548793 546799 544813 538843 536859
      535863 536867 533872 528873 525875 525879 525883 526886
      528894 532906 534912 537917 541931 539936 536936 534933
      532933 530931 527931 525933 524937 525942 523951 523958
      522961 519961 514958 510952 507947 505942 504937 503932
      502929 498916 496908 493904 482883 478880 475873 472868
      472860 472853 476849 478843 479840 478837 472826 470818
      469811 470806 469800 466797 464791 460778 459768 462763
      477749 486742 495735 510720 520713 525709 528710 532712
      533715 538728
 0.01 526687 519690 515688 513686 510684 507685 505692 500690
      490686 487688 486691 491695 494699 495707 493715 490719
      485725 480727 475725 471721 471716 470713 465710 461708
      459704 457704 454696 452691 445681 438669 435662 434655
      436649 439644 444641 450639 454633 458628 462624 468621
      476619 482617 485621 489622 494623 500621
 0.01 228027 241036 247040 254043 261046 266052 270056 277061
      282065 288066 300058 307055 313051 321053 325055 332057
      338057 341055 344054 349055 356056 361057 364055 360067
      364069 365074 366081 366085 363087 359089 356091 354094
      354100 355105 354111 351115 350118 351128 352131 350135
      348139 348143 349146 348151 354156 359162 362169 360172
      361176 358183 360188 363190 369194 374199 381204 396214
      400217 400220 399224 392225 392229 397231 402232 404230
      412234 419231 425228 432228 437228 440227 446224 453224
      457229 460233 464235 466236 471234 474232 477236 479237
      480235 482230 485228 488230 491234 491237 489239 487241
      488245 490253 492258 495261 500268 510268 515274 517276
      519270 522262 525252 533205 532200 530199 523196 521194
      517192 507189 498187 491190 485191 481193 479190 477186
      476180 477171 472164 476157 482153 486147 490142 493133
      493126 490120 486112 482105 479102 479097 477094 475093
      470085 464087 461087 458086 456083 455078 457068 461060
      463055 466053 470048 474043 477034 479031 479025 479020
      479011 479003 480997 479992 479987 475979 469958 467954
      464954 461954 459957 445957 434951 429951 426949 422948
      420945 415939 406939 401939 398937 392933 391926 391920
      391914 387909 376899 373898 369900 367901 364904 358917
      353923 351925 349927 347926 334919 332917 328916 322913
      315905 309900 305900 301898 297891 294882 291881 286881
      279882 271885 281913 283922 283929 285935 286941 284945
      281949 277952 270955 259955 257957 252957 232961 232976
      235977 239977 242977 246977 250977 253977 255980 255984
      255988 255992 253995 249995 246995 242995 239993 237993
      235991 231991
 0.01 520850 521847 519845 519842 519837 518832 517829 514830
      514832 513838 513843 513848 513853 515858 517859 518856
      520853 520850
 0.01 478684 478681 477679 477676 475674 473673 472673 470673
      468674 467677 466679 468681 470683 472685 473685 475687
      477686 478684
 0.01 362143 361141 359141 359140 357138 356138 354140 353142
      355144 356146 358146 360145 362143
 0.01 343184 344175 343169 343166 339165 334166 327164 321164
      321169 324172 331174 336178 340181 340184 343184
 0.01 320774 320769 320767 316768 315770 313770 311773 309775
      308778 306780 307784 307786 309786 311784 314781 316779
      317776 319776 320774
 0.01 302755 301751 299749 297747 294748 288751 285757 276782
      259799 254804 251806 249803 246805 244807 241813 240820
      244823 248819 251813 255827 258834 262838 268841 275841
      282838 286835 292831 293829 293825 290818 286813 286808
      282803 284794 287789 296769 299765 300761 302755
 0.25 513234 513229 513221 510219 505217 500215 498216 497218
      498224 500230 501233 504237 509240 512236 513234
 0.25 499648 498644 494641 492638 488635 486635 484640 483644
      481646 482649 484651 488653 491655 495656 498654 499648
 0.25 472111 472108 471106 470103 469103 468102 467101 466102
      465104 463104 461104 463105 464107 464109 465112 466113
      467114 469113 471112 472111
 0.25 461178 461170 459163 456159 452162 450170 449175 450180
      446187 444193 446200 449201 451200 455194 458189 460180
      461178
 0.25 449097 448092 447088 443081 438075 434074 429074 426076
      424079 421088 419098 416101 413102 410099 406100 402107
      398114 395115 391114 383112 376113 367114 364115 362119
      361125 362130 365135 372140 375143 376148 378156 379159
      378162 380165 381170 383179 388185 395187 400187 403186
      408182 413181 417183 423188 426189 428187 424181 424177
      425174 426162 426152 425148 427144 432137 438134 441132
      444128 445119 446108 447100 449097
 0.25 424203 424200 423198 422195 420194 419194 418196 418197
      417199 416201 416202 415203 415204 417205 419206 421205
      422205 422204 424203
 0.25 425015 427004 427994 425986 423983 421982 415982 412976
      407971 403964 396954 388944 382940 374936 367938 361941
      357945 354952 349955 343958 336960 330961 321960 315960
      303966 297966 291964 288963 283964 277966 275968 275973
      278978 278983 277987 273992 265001 261006 256009 252010
      251012 252019 257031 261036 267039 273043 279046 285048
      293047 299044 304041 308038 315036 324035 327038 330046
      331048 334050 358041 364036 368031 371025 375021 381017
      388015 392016 392022 391026 389029 388033 389042 396055
      395066 396069 400070 412067 414064 414061 412058 412054
      415047 415041 417036 419032 421024 425015
 0.25 301931 302926 301922 300920 299918 297915 295912 293914
      294916 294920 293922 294926 294929 295933 296935 299935
      300933 301931
 0.25 298908 297905 296908 297909 298908
 0.25 277815 277811 276809 273808 269810 267811 265813 264815
      264819 265821 267823 269824 272825 275824 277822 277817
      277815
 0.50 454176 454174 453171 451172 451173 451174 452176 452177
      454177 454176
 0.50 441098 442094 441092 438088 434085 432085 430087 426089
      426094 428100 425103 421106 418111 416125 413130 413134
      415136 424132 431125 434120 436114 436102 441098
 0.50 405151 405146 404142 401137 395137 392137 387139 385143
      386148 388150 393154 397156 402155 404153 405151
 0.50 413017 414015 414012 413011 411011 409012 408014 408017
      409019 411021 412019 413018 413017
 0.50 407028 406026 404025 400023 398022 397023 395027 394030
      394033 396035 398037 401037 403036 405035 407031 407028
 0.50 381133 383129 382125 381122 379121 375121 374121 370122
      368124 367126 368128 369132 370134 374135 378135 380135
      381133
 0.50 389986 391978 390972 387963 382954 379951 375949 370949
      366951 360956 354963 346967 330975 323980 314983 308985
      301980 296978 290978 284984 276999 269005 266015 263019
      262023 266031 274034 284038 290038 293035 299030 304022
      310015 313016 315020 316025 319028 329027 332030 333036
      334041 337043 340043 344041 351035 358029 364023 369016
      376008 381003 385999 387995 389986
 1.00 379981 379975 377972 371966 367966 363967 357972 350976
      343978 335981 330987 327990 326995 327001 329004 334011
      336021 338028 340032 343032 349027 354021 363007 367000
      371994 376987 379981
 1.00 293016 292015 291015 289014 287012 286014 287016 286018
      287019 289020 290019 292018 292017 293016
 1.00 293004 293002 293001 293000 292997 291996 290995 288995
      286996 285997 284998 283999 283001 282003 283005 283008
      284008 285010 285011 287012 289010 291008 292006 293005
      293004
 1.00 283026 281024 279023 277023 276023 275024 274025 274026
      275027 277028 279029 281029 283028 283027 283026
 1.50 369981 371977 370975 364976 361977 357980 353982 348981
      343982 339984 334991 332995 333998 335999 338001 340005
      343008 347010 351007 353002 357996 360992 364990 369983
      369981
 2.00 348991 348989 348988 346988 344988 343989 342989 341991
      342992 343993 344995 344996 346996 347995 347993 348991
      348991

$$





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