Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 
000
FXUS04 KWBC 260659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...THE NORTHEAST...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO
LIFT THE INITIAL NEW ENGLAND CLOSED H5 LOW SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THIS PERIOD..WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY LATER
SUNDAY EVENING.  STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION TO ITS
NORTH AND WEST WILL IMPACT MOSTLY NORTHERN VT..NH AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ME DURING THE DAY SUNDAY..WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT AND
SCATTERED RAINS LEFT OVER EXTREME NORTHERN ME SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODEL
QPFS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.25-0.50+ INCH MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ME WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST..SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS MANUAL FORECAST.


...TX...

FORECAST HERE STILL SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE..BUT THERE IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL QPFS TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE REALLY HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING VICINITY OF THE SAN ANTONIO AREA ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BE REPEATED IN TX THIS PERIOD.  WE ARE STILL DEALING
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WHICH STRETCHES GENERALLY NORTH
TO SOUTH THRU ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF TX..WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS WEAKENING THIS FEATURE EVEN MORE AND DRIFTING IT EASTWARD
WITH TIME.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE EAST OF THIS SHEAR
AXIS..AS PER PWS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES..AND DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NEAR THIS SHEAR AXIS AND IN THE
HIGH MOISTURE AXIS THRU ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  KEPT AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE..AT OR BELOW 0.50 INCH..BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME LOCAL
1-2 INCH TOTALS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE.


...NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...

THIS COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE PART OF THE COUNTRY
CONVECTION-WISE..WITH ONGOING SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THERE IS NOT NECESSARILY A LOT OF AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AS PER RATHER DIFFERENT MODEL QPFS..BUT ENDED UP LEANING
TOWARDS GEM REGIONAL/IN-HOUSE PSEUDO ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED/NAM
CONEST SOLUTIONS..BUT WITH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE.  THINKING IS
THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION FROM EASTERN SD INTO IA SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE LATER SUNDAY MORNING HOURS AS IT EVENTUALLY
DROPS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD..SUPPORTED BY A WEAK H5 S/WV NOW IN
CENTRAL SD AND A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  IT
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM H5 S/WV NOW VICINITY
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL REACH THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAP WHAT WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET..AT OR ABOVE 50KTS..TO FIRE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE
REGION.  AS STATED ABOVE..THE GEM REGION..ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED
AND NAM CONEST QPFS SEEMED TO BE PICKING UP THIS IDEA..SO MANUAL
QPF FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY.  BETWEEN THE 2 EVENTS..EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME AREA AVERAGE 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NE/SOUTHEASTERN SD INTO NORTHWESTERN IA..WITH SOME
ISOLD 3+ INCH TOTALS QUITE POSSIBLE.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THRU MT INTO THE NORTHERN HI PLAINS...

THE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H5 S/WV APPROACHING THE OR COAST AT THIS
TIME IS FORECAST RATHER SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THRU THE
PAC NW/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD RAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
MT..WITH ENHANCED AMOUNTS LIKELY EASTERN MT INTO FAR WESTERN ND
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS INTO THIS REGION.  THERE IS DECENT MODEL QPF AGREEMENT
THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO MT..AND SOME AGREEMENT INTO
EASTERN MT AND THE NORTHERN HI PLAINS..WHERE MANUAL QPF AGAIN
LEANED TOWARDS A GEM REGIONAL SOLUTION.  MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINS EXPECTED FM PARTS OF ID INTO MT..BUT WITH HEAVIER TOTALS
LIKELY OVER EASTERN MT/EXTREME WESTERN ND ON THE NOSE OF HIGHER
PWS BEING BROUGHT INTO THIS AREA ON THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET.


...PAC NW...

COMBINATION OF THE INITIAL H5 S/WV MOVING THRU EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THE NEXT ONE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NW COAST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING MORE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF WA AND MOST OF OR..WITH
MODEL QPFS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 511651 506639 503636 500634 494635 491637 487637 482636
      474632 473630 470632 463639 459642 455643 449642 442643
      436649 435656 434660 436666 438671 436676 430681 422687
      418691 417694 417697 418702 423706 428708 435708 436714
      437717 436720 433723 427724 424726 423732 431736 435739
      436746 439751 442753 453753 462749 471743 485733 493726
      498718 508703 510695 509684 508674 510669 511663 511651
 0.01 528208 530194 530189 528185 527179 524176 521173 517174
      515172 514169 513166 511166 505172 502172 500170 498167
      493161 490159 488157 485155 482151 483146 483143 485141
      489143 493144 500145 501136 497119 498113 499109 501102
      501095 503091 504085 504078 503072 501067 500064 501062
      509058 515053 517049 518043 520034 520030 519027 517021
      515018 511012 504002 501999 497998 494992 491983 487974
      477959 470952 465949 456939 449927 444921 443917 440914
      437906 434899 427886 423878 418872 408858 403853 397848
      391847 388846 384848 381849 380851 379854 379859 383879
      383887 383895 382903 379910 377917 375920 373924 372927
      372932 372937 374942 377945 380946 385946 389951 390956
      389960 379969 377977 377981 380985 382985 384988 385993
      387996 390001 391006 393010 397016 404022 406023 411024
      419023 424024 426026 431033 426033 418033 415037 415045
      417049 418053 421059 421065 427064 431061 435061 438064
      439068 443076 448084 450087 450091 447092 446096 447101
      450103 450107 446107 443105 438108 438112 440110 443112
      442122 442133 441139 439143 437146 435151 435156 438165
      436167 432164 430163 428165 427171 429175 427179 424181
      421173 418173 418178 418186 421194 417198 415200 415203
      418207 421213 418215 414215 405224 395233 392236 389241
      390246 391249 393252 398256 406259 421264 429265 436263
      442261 447258 451254 458254 464254 471256 476259 481259
      483257 487257 492258 494256 495249 492247 489238 487234
      489229 491228 494231 495231 497226 497215 499209 501206
      506201 508194 510183 513184 515186 517191 518197 519202
      521208 523212 524212 528208
 0.01 487192 487188 488183 486180 485178 483175 480174 477173
      475172 473176 474179 474180 476184 477185 476190 474193
      475198 478198 481195 484193 487192 487192
 0.01 371011 368008 364007 358008 354006 350005 345006 341009
      336010 328013 323015 320017 314023 314026 315027 320027
      332025 340023 351020 359017 368015 371011
 0.01 321983 333977 348969 357961 361956 362950 360942 355935
      346931 334931 327934 322939 319946 313954 303965 301968
      297969 290970 285972 282975 274983 270992 271999 278999
      283997 288994 292992 298992 307991 318986 321983
 0.01 265803 264799 261798 255799 247802 243807 241812 240819
      241824 244825 248824 249822 251815 253809 254807 257805
      263805 265803
 0.25 502665 498658 494655 488656 482659 476659 471659 466660
      460665 457671 454677 454685 458693 461699 464708 468717
      470721 472722 478722 483717 487712 492705 495693 499678
      502665
 0.25 488072 489065 488061 487055 485051 482042 479029 477018
      478014 479011 483001 483993 481985 479980 475977 463966
      454954 444945 439938 435930 429911 420893 413881 409875
      404869 399863 396861 394862 392866 391875 392884 392902
      390910 388918 385926 385929 388931 398929 403932 406942
      407948 407954 405963 402971 397979 395986 395991 397996
      401002 407005 423000 430001 437998 442996 447996 453001
      456006 458008 460013 458039 455048 454054 453061 451069
      452076 454079 458085 460093 461100 460106 462116 461123
      459127 456130 455136 453143 451149 449153 447154 448157
      448163 451166 454167 462165 468159 470154 471150 469140
      469134 472128 475128 478125 480111 482108 485103 486098
      487090 488072
 0.25 455242 460243 471244 478245 478237 473232 468228 469223
      471221 470215 466217 461216 457217 452216 441212 435221
      433225 432230 441229 445227 450226 453226 455231 452234
      449233 449236 451241 455242
 0.25 453197 454193 454189 454184 453182 451184 450184 447187
      444191 443193 442194 441198 442201 445202 448202 450200
      451199 453197
 0.25 419254 427254 436254 442251 445246 445240 442238 435238
      426237 417236 412238 410242 409245 413251 419254
 0.25 331969 339964 344961 346955 344949 338947 332949 321960
      320966 321969 324971 331969
 0.50 493668 491665 487663 481666 477667 472667 469669 467672
      465677 466682 468685 471687 475689 480689 485684 489678
      491674 493668
 0.50 480068 481061 480055 476046 476033 473025 469021 466025
      463034 461043 459051 458058 458064 462071 465076 469080
      473079 479072 480068
 0.50 473995 473990 470987 470991 471995 471996 473995
 0.50 460156 459153 456154 455155 455158 458158 460156
 0.50 457976 456971 454966 450961 444952 434937 419901 412889
      409885 404881 399881 398888 398896 399906 401915 404924
      411933 413939 415949 412960 411970 412981 410984 406984
      403984 401986 400989 401993 404997 406997 409995 412989
      419990 422991 426992 430989 434985 439983 446982 454980
      457976
 1.00 469059 469055 468052 467055 466059 468061 469059
 1.00 430979 437975 443970 443964 440955 436948 431939 424926
      415911 409902 405903 404906 407917 411923 415929 420936
      422946 421955 419965 419975 423979 427979 430979
 1.50 436959 435956 435954 434952 432948 431945 429945 428945
      427949 427953 426955 426957 426961 426965 428969 431970
      434969 435968 436963 436959

$$
USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.