Quantitative Precipitation Statement
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FSUS46 KSGX 171254
QPSSGX

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST TUE JAN 17 2017

PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN INCHES IN 6-HOUR PERIODS...
   [ BEGINNING TIMES FOR EACH PERIOD IN LOCAL TIME...                    ]
   [ FOR EXAMPLE...04THU                                                 ]
   [            ...10THU IS A FORECAST FOR  4 AM TO 10 AM THURSDAY       ]
   [ FOR EXAMPLE...22THU                                                 ]
   [            ...04FRI IS A FORECAST FOR  10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY]


...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   HUNTINGTON BEACH
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.21  0.29  0.01  0.01  0.01
   NEWPORT BEACH
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.14  0.37  0.00  0.04  0.01
   LAGUNA BEACH
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.12  0.47  0.01  0.01  0.01
   SAN CLEMENTE
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.16  0.54  0.16  0.03  0.02


...ORANGE COUNTY INLAND...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   ANAHEIM
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.16  0.50  0.00  0.01  0.01
   FULLERTON
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.19  0.37  0.00  0.01  0.01
   BREA
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.25  0.54  0.00  0.01  0.01
   VILLA PARK
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.27  0.64  0.01  0.01  0.02


...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   FREMONT CANYON
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.30  0.69  0.01  0.01  0.02
   SILVERADO CANYON, 3 MI EAST OF SILVERADO
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.36  1.07  0.03  0.01  0.04
   MODJESKA PRESERVE
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.27  0.97  0.02  0.01  0.03
   SANTIAGO PEAK
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.43  1.13  0.08  0.01  0.04
   SANTA ROSA PLATEAU
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.18  0.59  0.09  0.00  0.02


...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   ONTARIO
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.29  0.60  0.03  0.01  0.02
   SAN BERNARDINO
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.16  0.49  0.09  0.00  0.02
   BEAUMONT
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.07  0.56  0.19  0.01  0.03
   RIVERSIDE
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.18  0.53  0.01  0.01  0.02
   PERRIS VALLEY CHANNEL
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.13  0.58  0.02  0.01  0.03
   PRADO DAM
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.22  0.59  0.01  0.01  0.02
   TEMECULA
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.05  0.56  0.07  0.00  0.02
   HEMET
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.04  0.46  0.07  0.00  0.03


...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   IDYLLWILD
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.06  1.03  0.38  0.01  0.08


...COACHELLA VALLEY...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   PALM SPRINGS
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.10  0.02  0.00  0.00
   THERMAL
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.02  0.00  0.00


...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   SAN ANTONIO DAM
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.06  0.43  1.31  0.16  0.01  0.05
   LYTLE CREEK
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.04  0.48  0.93  0.10  0.00  0.04
   WRIGHTWOOD
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.03  0.31  0.58  0.05  0.01  0.03
   LAKE ARROWHEAD
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.04  0.26  0.89  0.20  0.06  0.06
   BIG BEAR LAKE
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.10  0.42  0.12  0.02  0.03
   BIG MORONGO CANYON
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.20  0.02  0.00  0.02


...APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   HESPERIA
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.08  0.16  0.01  0.00  0.01
   VICTORVILLE
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.07  0.12  0.01  0.00  0.00
   APPLE VALLEY
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.08  0.09  0.02  0.00  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   OCEANSIDE
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.06  0.49  0.05  0.02  0.02
   MIRAMAR
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.41  0.05  0.00  0.01
   SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.33  0.01  0.00  0.01
   CHULA VISTA
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.03  0.32  0.04  0.00  0.01
   SAN YSIDRO
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.34  0.02  0.01  0.01


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   FALLBROOK
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.06  0.59  0.05  0.03  0.02
   RANCHO BERNARDO
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.04  0.52  0.14  0.03  0.02
   LA MESA
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.43  0.04  0.01  0.01
   EL CAJON
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.46  0.05  0.00  0.01


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   PALOMAR MOUNTAIN
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.03  0.76  0.24  0.02  0.03
   JULIAN
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.71  0.34  0.02  0.02
   MOUNT LAGUNA
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.47  0.27  0.01  0.02
   CAMPO
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.58  0.15  0.00  0.02


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...

   04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU
   10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED 10WED 16WED 22WED 04THU 10THU 16THU 22THU 04FRI

   BORREGO SPRINGS
   0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.12  0.01  0.00  0.00

$$

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG PACIFIC
JET STREAM WILL DIRECT A SERIES OF STORMS THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. AT PRESENT...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE FIRST STORM IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

A THIRD STORM IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR THE FIRST STORM...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE
THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR THE COAST TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FEET THURSDAY...TO
4000 TO 4500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE SECOND STORM...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH NEAR THE
COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY BE
AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET.

THE STORM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAY BE THE STRONGEST IN THE
SEQUENCE...BUT RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED NOT QUITE AS
STRONG.

FOR THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS...

COAST...........2 TO 4 INCHES.
VALLEYS.........3 TO 5 INCHES.
MOUNTAINS.......6 TO 12 INCHES.
UPPER DESERTS...1 TO 3 INCHES.
LOWER DESERTS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

FLOODING POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY MONDAY IF THESE
STORMS DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET AT TIMES. SNOWFALL OF 4
FEET OR MORE IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH 2 FEET OR MORE
ABOVE 6500 FEET.

$$

17



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