Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 281830
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
SDZ000-WYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/28/15 1830Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1815Z  JS
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LOCATION...W SOUTH DAKOTA/CENT TO E WYOMING...
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ATTN WFOS...UNR...CYS...RIW...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL PERIOD FOR SPENES RETIREMENT APPEALS HAS ENDED,
NESDIS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL APPEALS THROUGH EMAILS TO
JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...DISCUSSION CONCERNING POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENT TO E WY AND W SD.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE OBVIOUS FEATURE WHICH STANDS OUT
ACROSS THE REGION IS THE VERY SYMMETRIC AND WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND GOES-RGB AIR MASS ANIMATIONS
CENTERED OVER NW WY WITH VORT LOBE SWINGING TO THE SE OVER SE ID/N UT/W
WY. ANALYSIS AND GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOT ALSO INDICATES A RELATIVE
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING TO THE E AND SE ACROSS N NV/N AND CENT
UT ALONG WITH A SECOND MAX MOVING NE FROM E MT ACROSS ND WHICH PLACES
PORTIONS OF WY AND W SD IN A FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CLOSER
TO THE SFC, SEEING EVIDENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN RAP ANALYSIS
AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA STRETCHING FROM CENT WY TO W SD. MOISTURE
PROFILES, THOUGH NOT EXTREMELY EXCESSIVE, ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM RIW INDICATING DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO
ABOVE 300MB ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF JUST UNDER .6" WHICH FALLS ROUGHLY
IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAY.
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OUTLOOK...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, EXPECT DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENT TO E WY/W SD AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND APPROACHING VORT LOBE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF SE ID/N UT
INTO W-SW WY. VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS TOWERING CU AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS SW WY ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE AS WELL AS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF WY AND OVER W SD. VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS A CU LINE WHICH APPROXIMATELY CORRESPONDS TO THE ANALYZED
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM W CENT-CENT WY BETWEEN KRIW AND
KWRL TO S OF KGCC IN E WY. GIVEN THE SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESO-ANALYSIS,
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE GENERAL PROXIMITY OF THIS LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM CENT WY TO E WY AND OVER THE BORDER INTO W SD,
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS REGION. RATHER LOW EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AND RELATIVELY LOWER MEAN WINDS THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
ARE ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THOUGH THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DURATION, EXTENT, AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4465 10304 4318 10405 4253 10708 4292 10932 4432 10639

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