Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 141905
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/14/14 1904Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1845ZDS
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LOCATION...S SOUTH CAROLINA...W FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SE/E CENTRAL
ALABAMA...
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ATTN WFOS...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...DVLPG SHWRS AND TSTORMS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A FIELD OF CU/TCU ACROSS
S/SE AL...CENTRAL/SRN GA..AND S SC THAT MAY DVLP INTO A HVY RAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BNDRY IS DRAPED SW-NE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SW TO E CENTRAL GA WITH ANOTHER BNDRY WITH COLDER AIR TO THE N/NE
SEEN IN VIS PRESSING SW ACROSS GA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
MOISTURE OF ABOUT 2" PW VALUES SPREAD FROM S SC WWD ACROSS GA TO S CENTRAL
AL..MAXIMIZED BETWEEN THESE TWO BNDRYS. 12Z CHS RAOB ALSO SHOWED QUITE
A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH A PW OF 2.25". VWP DATA SHOWS WEAK SERLY
FLOW ACROSS NRN FL/S GA THAT IS ALLOWING FOR WAA NWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BNDRY WITH INCRSG THETA-E ALONG AND JUST N OF THE BNDRY OVER GA/FAR SRN
SC. AREA OF STRONGER SFC/LOW LVL CNVG IS ANALYZED FROM NR KAMG NEWD TO
KJYL AND THEN EWD TWDS KCHS. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OVER SRN TO CENTRAL
GA AND FAR S SC HAS ALLOWED FOR SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500J/KG AND LI`S
OF -5 TO -6 BASED ON GOES SOUNDER/SPC  MESOANALYSIS..WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CAPE AVAILABLE FURTHER W OVER SE AL.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1905-0105Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCT IS
GIVING HIGH PROBABILITIES OF DVLPMT OF CNVTN WITH THE AREA OF MAXIMUM
CNVG DISCUSSED ABOVE FROM S CENTRAL GA TO S SC AND ALSO OVER W CENTRAL
GA INTO E CENTRAL AL. SECONDARY BNDRY BEING PRESSED S/SW ACROSS GA IS
INCRSG LOW LVL CNVG OVER THESE AREAS AIDING IN DVLPMT. CNVTN THAT FORMS
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
LAYER AND COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON..ON THE ORDER OF 1-3". SOME
MERGERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER E CENTRAL GA DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
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OF MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...IS HOW THE CNVTN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BELIEVE A LITTLE MORE ERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LVL
FLOW WILL DVLP AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES WWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW BETTER CNVG TO SHIFT WWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SE AL ALLOWING
FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMT BASED ON UNTAPPED INSTABILITY THERE. ACTIVITY OVER
E GA/SC SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE AS THIS OCCURS. WHILE HVY RAIN THREAT MAY
NOT BE AS GREAT FURTHER W GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY..LOW LVL CNVG AND HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3398 8534 3323 8310 3279 7952 3094 8130 3143 8590
3076 8724 3069 8827
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