Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 272000
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/27/16 2000Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: 1945Z VIS GOES-13 KC
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH WEAK STORM MOTIONS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AS CONVECTION FIRES ON THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE LOW LVL INFLOW. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING SHOWED 4000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE AND 13 KT 0-6 MEAN WINDS
SUGGESTING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO WEAK STORM MOTIONS.  VIS IMAGERY
DISPLAYS SCATTERED TCU MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS PUERTO RICO WHILE AN AXIS
OF GREATER MOISTURE IS SEEN JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE 1416Z AMSU
PASS SHOWING 2" PW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND GREATER THAN
2" PW  AROUND 63W.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT
INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES NEAR 1"-1.5"/HR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL PART OF PUERTO RICO BUILD SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS EASTWARD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW ADVECTS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. CONCERN IS THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND POSSIBLE MERGERS FROM OUTFLOWS GENERATED BY THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST NE/E/SE MOVING TOWARDS PUERTO RICO. SINCE THERE IS
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY FROM DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IT SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS IT UTILIZES
ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1867 6721 1865 6544 1777 6568 1776 6746
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