Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 060144
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NEZ000-SDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/06/15 0143Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13         0130Z                 JANKOT
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LOCATION...NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE MN SW THROUGH DISCUSSION REGION WHICH SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AXIS AS LLJ INCREASES COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST IR/VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ENHANCEMENT
REMOVED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/AXIS OF SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE SEVERE
THAN HEAVY RAINS DO EXPECT AXIS TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING. THE EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE WIND PRODUCT DOES DEPICT A 95
KNOT JET MAX ACROSS NW ND WITH ITS RIGHT EXIT REGION FAVORED DYNAMICS
LIKELY INCREASING LIFT FOR DISCUSSION REGION. ADDITIONALLY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW IN NE WY THAT SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. GOES SOUNDER DEPICTS HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS  SE SD
WITH CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000-4000 J/KG AND THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN SPC
MESOANALYSIS. BLENDED TPW HAS SHOWN MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.7-2.0" AND WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
THREAT TO BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT 3 HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES HELPING AID
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FUEL HEAVY RAINS. WOULD EXPECT RATES
OF 1-2"/HR IN DEEPEST CONVECTION.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0145-0445Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM W
NE ENE INTO SD NEXT FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT THE FOCUS TO ALIGN ON THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. RATES OF 1-2"/HR IS EXPECTED IN DEEPEST CONVECTION AND
WITH 3 HR FFG 1-2.5" IN MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION REGION THE REGION SHOULD
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS RATES COULD  EXCEED THIS GUIDANCE GIVEN DYNAMICS,
MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4539 9775 4418 9658 4237 9748 4178 10006 4204 10315
4378 10325 4484 10102
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NNNN


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