Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 290102
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN CO AND SWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SRN AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO OK AND KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND COASTAL NY/NJ...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS S-CNTRL AZ...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHER STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING AND COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY
LATER TONIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO ERN CO...
COMPLEX MESOSCALE FORECAST THIS EVENING FEATURING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AND ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF
THIS REGION.  LONGER-LIVED MCS OVER E-CNTRL KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO THE SE POSING A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPRECIABLY STABILIZES.  LARGE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX.
FARTHER W...THE DENVER RAOB SAMPLED A MODERATELY BUOYANT AIRMASS
ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LOCATED IN AN AREA RELATIVELY
UNDISTURBED BY EARLIER-DAY OUTFLOW.  STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
BELT OF FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR VIGOROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.  A CORRIDOR OVER ERN CO SEWD
INTO SWRN KS MAY INCLUDE AN AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL AND GROW UPSCALE...WHICH IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING.  A MOIST AIRMASS AND MODERATE FLOW MAY STILL
YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG DAMAGING GUST.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NJ COAST LATER TONIGHT AND DEVELOP
NEWD.  A STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE COULD RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF WEAK ROTATION WITH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS
AND A NONZERO-TORNADO RISK.

...S-CNTRL AZ...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS STORMS ORIGINATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS WHERE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE PRESENT.

..SMITH.. 07/29/2016

$$



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