Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 240034
SWODY1
SPC AC 240032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms should persist over the
Mid-Atlantic and central/eastern Carolinas through the evening. The
main threats will be damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.

...Mid-Atlantic south into the eastern Carolinas...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough continues to progress through
the region, providing ample forcing for ascent for thunderstorms,
despite modest instability. Line of storms currently extending from
western VA southward through the central Carolinas is expected to
continue east-northeastward during the next several hours. Modest
instability (i.e. MLCAPE generally from 100-250 J/kg) will likely
limit overall storm strength and persistence. Even so, strong wind
fields are supportive of veering wind profiles (sampled well by the
00Z CHS sounding) favorable for rotating thunderstorms with the
potential for a tornado or two within the strongest updrafts.
Enhanced downdrafts resulting from updraft rotation may result in a
few damaging wind gusts as well. Recent CAPPI data has actually
shown modest increases in storm intensity (particularly across
central NC) and the general expectation is for the storms to remain
strong enough to produce severe weather for at least the next few
hours.

..Mosier.. 10/24/2017

$$



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