Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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386
ACUS01 KWNS 071619
SWODY1
SPC AC 071618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTS NEWD TODAY...A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE
APPROXIMATELY 180 MI SE OF KILM AS OF 16Z WILL LIKEWISE MOVE NEWD
PARALLEL TO THE NC/SC COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING
OVER THE OPEN WRN ATLANTIC AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONUS TONIGHT.
ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC.

FURTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS BY EARLY MON. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR MEAGER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO
SRN IL/IND AND KY/TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY SHOWERY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW AND
NOT REACH A SUFFICIENT HEIGHT TO INDUCE CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTNING.

..GLEASON/HART.. 02/07/2016

$$



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