Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 250057
SWODY1
SPC AC 250055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND INTO WESTERN PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SEWD ACROSS NEB/KS/OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  SEVERAL
INTENSE SUPERCELLS -- INCLUDING PREVIOUSLY TORNADIC STORMS -- HAVE
BEEN ONGOING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF WRN KS IN THE DODGE CITY AREA...AND
ACROSS NERN CO.  OTHER INTENSE CELLS ARE ONGOING OVER ERN PARTS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE...AND ACROSS E CENTRAL OK.

THE WRN KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLE STORMS HAVE INITIATED INVOF THE
DRYLINE...WITH THE DDC AREA STORMS IN PARTICULAR OCCURRING INVOF THE
INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND A PRIOR NW-SE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER-PERIOD CONVECTION /THE MAINLY SUB-SEVERE REMNANTS OF WHICH
CONTINUE SHIFTING AR AND WRN TN/.  FAVORABLE SELY SURFACE WINDS TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS KS VEERING/INCREASING SWLY AT
40 KT AT MID-LEVELS IS YIELDING SHEAR PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR...AND THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE E OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE KS VICINITY /OWING TO A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAYER/...EXPECT INTENSE/SUPERCELL STORMS -- CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS -- TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  WHILE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...TORNADO RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS KS AS A LARGE
MCS.

FARTHER N...ISOLATED CELLS INVOF NERN CO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO
A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO SWRN NEB.  RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS WRN NEB AS WELL -- AS CONVECTION MERGES WITH WEAKER STORMS
ONGOING OVER SWRN SD AND THE MCS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SD AND NEB
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2016

$$


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