Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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669
ACUS03 KWNS 270729
SWODY3
SPC AC 270729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
OZARK PLATEAU.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NEWD FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING...WITH
WRN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OH VALLEY. A SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND APPROACH THE MID-MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LAGGING A LEAD MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY LATE MORNING...AND REACH
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THE EVENING. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS SHOULD OCCUR S OF
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
INTO SRN NY...AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR/AHEAD THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
NJ/DEL...AND TSTMS FORMING WITHIN A UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW REGIME
AMIDST STRONGER HEATING ACROSS ERN VA AND FAR NERN NC.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EFFECT OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL
OCCUR.

...MID-MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MCS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
KS OR NRN OK AT THE START OF THE FRI/D3 PERIOD...WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LIKELY POSITIONED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. 20-30 KT OF
MIDLEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT BOUTS OF
STRONG CONVECTION...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM SWRN KS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATE IN THE D2 PERIOD.

..ROGERS.. 07/27/2016

$$



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