Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
112 ACUS03 KWNS 080731 SWODY3 SPC AC 080730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 $$