Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 230651
SWODY3
SPC AC 230650

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may impact eastern portions of southern New England
Wednesday, accompanied by at least some risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Model output indicates increasing uncertainty concerning short wave
developments within the larger-scale flow during this period.  In
general, though, the pattern appears likely to remain amplified, but
initial large-scale upper troughing over the East may slowly begin
to lose some amplitude and accelerate northeast across the Atlantic
Seaboard.  This is expected to occur as an upstream short wave
trough begins to amplify southeastward across the central
Canadian/U.S. border and northern Rockies.  A cold front associated
with the remnant Eastern troughing may be in the process of
advancing into New England, east of much of the mid and southern
Atlantic coast, and through the southern Florida Peninsula, by 12Z
Wednesday.  It is expected to advance east of the New England and
southeast Florida coast by the end of the period.  In its wake,
generally dry and stable conditions will prevail across much of the
nation.

...New England...
Within a narrow plume of seasonably moist air ahead of the cold
front, an environment characterized by weak boundary layer
instability and strong lower/mid tropospheric wind fields (40-60+ kt
in the 850-500 mb layer) may still support a risk for convection
capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts across eastern
portions of southern New England.  This could include the
Boston/Providence area through midday, and the Cape Cod area through
Wednesday afternoon.  Destabilization to support an appreciable risk
for severe convective gusts remains more unclear farther to the
north, across coastal/Downeast Maine.

..Kerr.. 10/23/2017

$$



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