Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES
DURING THE PERIOD.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PROGRESS OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TUE AS
AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARDS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS OVER THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
W OF BAJA CA SHOULD MOVE INTO NW MEXICO BY 12Z/TUE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DECAYING MON NIGHT. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVANCE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

...CNTRL OK TO WRN AR AREA...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA MON EVENING/NIGHT...MOST
GUIDANCE /OUTSIDE OF THE SREF/ SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
FORM N OF A DIFFUSE/SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT INITIALLY OVER N TX. ON
THE SW PERIPHERY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
HAIL. BUT MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PROBABLE CLUSTER MODE SHOULD
LIMIT HAIL SIZE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE SUCH A CORRIDOR MIGHT BE LATE D3...WILL DEFER POSSIBLE
MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

...BIG BEND OF TX...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS BOTH WITH THE EXTENT OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BENEATH A STOUT EML AND THE STRENGTH
OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS AHEAD OF THE NW MEXICO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS
RENDERS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
DESPITE VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 03/28/2015



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