Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020846
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Satellite data indicate that Andres continues to weaken.  The deep
convection has become less symmetric and the eye is no longer
apparent.  A blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from
SAB and TAFB yield an initial intensity of 90 kt.  The hurricane
will be moving over sea surface temperatures of less than 26 degrees
Celsius very soon, and into a drier and more stable environment.
These unfavorable conditions will cause steady weakening, and Andres
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and
become a post-tropical cyclone in 72 hours, if not sooner.  The
global models suggest that the circulation will become an open
trough in about 5 days, and the official forecast follows suit by
calling for dissipation by 120 h.

The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt.  The forecast reasoning
from the previous advisory remains unchanged.  A mid-level ridge to
the north of Andres is forecast to shift eastward as a deepening
mid-latitude trough approaches the west coast of the United States
during the next couple of days.  This should cause the tropical
cyclone to move northwestward, then northward.  After 48 hours,
a weaker Andres is forecast to turn slowly eastward within the
low-level flow.  The new track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory, but shows a slightly faster eastward motion
late in the period to be in better agreement with the model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 18.0N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 19.8N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.1N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 20.3N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 20.2N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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