Marine/Aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS

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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 170234
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.2N 103.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 106.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.7N 108.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




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