Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 310345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS STRETCHED OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT EARLY
EVENING.  OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS/
NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  MEANWHILE...JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT ACROSS UPPER AND ABOUT
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN.  UPPER LAKES LIES DOWNSTREAM
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  00Z APX SOUNDING RELATIVELY DRY ABOVE 900MB...WITH HIGHER
MIXING RATIOS IN A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER (AROUND 12G/KG AVERAGE
THROUGH THE SURFACE-900MB LAYER).

WILL BE WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60-65F RANGE AND LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO IN THAT
RANGE OR A BIT BELOW.  FOG IS BECOMING RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED.  STILL A BIT OF
A GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SO FOG UP HERE HAS BEEN MORE
SHALLOW/PATCHY SO FAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BROAD BERMUDA HIGH IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
US. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH IS SEEN OVER NORTHERN IL. DIURNAL CU FIELD
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY THIN...THOUGH SOME THICKER CU/STRATOCU REMAIN
SE OF HTL. SOME MARINE STRATUS IS POKING INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
CO. NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...AND THE CU FIELD OUT THE
WINDOW IS QUITE PANCAKE-Y...THANKS TO A CAP AT 825MB (SEE 12Z APX
SOUNDING). NO RISK OF PRECIP...BUT A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN PRONE TO FOG/STRATUS (CERTAINLY IS STILL PLENTY UPSTREAM TO
OUR SW).

SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER 60S. WHERE
SKIES CLEAR...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW RAPID
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. WE WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING BACK TO
CURRENT DEW POINTS...BRINGING FOG BACK INTO THE EQUATION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FOGGY MARINE LAYER WILL EXERT A
STRONGER INFLUENCE NEAR LAKE MI ONCE VERTICAL MIXING CEASES.
NORTHERN SECTIONS (NORTH OF M-32) AND LAKE MI COASTAL LOCALES
WARRANT THE STRONGEST FOG WORDING TONIGHT.

TO THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY SE...MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER TO AND AFTER SUNSET. THAT WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO
REFORM...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR FOG.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A COUPLE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS APPEAR LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY. NO REAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

OVER THE PAST HANDFUL OF YEARS...THE LEAD-UP TO THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAS FEATURED SOME VERY NICE SUMMERTIME WEATHER...AS
IF MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING HER BEST TO APOLOGIZE FOR OTHERWISE
COOLISH (AND AT TIMES JUST PLAIN COLD) WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
SUMMER. THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE NO DIFFERENT...WITH PROBABLY THE
LONGEST STRETCH OF "REAL" SUMMERLIKE WARMTH SEEN OVER THE PAST THREE
MONTHS. IT ALL COMES COURTESY OF REDEVELOPING TROUGHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA (WHERE THEY CAN CERTAINLY USE
SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AND RAINFALL)...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSTREAM
HEIGHT RISES ONE EXPECTS IN SUCH A SETUP. THAT RIDGE CORE WILL
FINALLY BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ALL
WHILE BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST MAINTAINS A NICE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
OVERALL WIND REGIME. OF COURSE...THIS IS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO
THERE HAS TO BE A POSSIBLE WRINKLE OR TWO IN THE FORECAST...WHICH
WILL COME TOWARD WEDNESDAY WITH HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS AND DOWN TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WE`LL WORRY ABOUT THAT IN A MINUTE...BUT FIRST...STILL LOOKING LIKE
A FANTASTIC STRETCH OF LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FULLY IN CONTROL AND LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT
WHY GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEVELOP SUCH HIGH DEW POINTS ON MONDAY (WELL
INTO THE 60S)...AS MIXING TO AROUND 875MB STARTS TO TAP INTO A
PRONOUNCED POOL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. GUT FEELING IS WE WILL
LIKELY MIX EVEN A LITTLE DEEPER (AS WE OFTEN DO THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEW POINTS TO CRASH DOWN THROUGH THE
50S FOR INLAND AREAS. NOT REALLY A BIG DEAL IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF
THINGS...BUT FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...A PERIOD OF LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE (THOUGH WITH READINGS STILL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS). WILL ALSO BE WATCHING CLOUD TRENDS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO LINGER
FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME HIGHER
LEVEL STRATUS TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING AS A PUSH OF STRONGER THETA-E
ADVECTION WORKS BACK THROUGH THE AREA. NOTHING TOO MAJOR...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WARMING SOLIDLY THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
WARMEST SPOTS.

PEEKING INTO WEDNESDAY...A SIMILAR SETUP THERMALLY FROM THE START OF
THE WEEK...WITH H8 TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 19C SUPPORTING READINGS WELL
INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AT THE SAME TIME...WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY
GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POOLING IN PLACE BY THIS POINT...WITH
INCREASING HINTS FROM GUIDANCE FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO RIDGE THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AND SNEAK INTO HERE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE EVERYTHING...BUT SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...NOT TO MENTION THAT PRONOUNCED
INLAND HEATING SHOULD ACT TO FOCUS LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE INTO THE
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST LOWER/INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER. SUSPECT WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS...FUELED INITIALLY BY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BUT
SUSTAINED/REGENERATED BY OUTFLOW GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW/LOW
SHEAR. OVERALL...A VERY TYPICAL LATE SEASON NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IMPRESSIVE LATE SUMMER RIDGING STILL ON TAP THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE FINER DETAILS OF WHICH CAN BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET A
BIT CLOSER. THE WARMTH LOOKS TO HANG ON THROUGH LABOR DAY...BUT THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT GOING INTO TUESDAY AS HEIGHT
FALLS WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD...AND TROUGHING RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINAL OVERNIGHT IN
FOG...POSSIBLY JUST MVFR AT TVC. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LONG FETCH ON
NORTHERN LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN BUMPY CONDITIONS THERE...2-4
FOOTERS EXPECTED TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY EARLY) AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ALM
MARINE...JAZ



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