Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 221729
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...GREETINGS TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL (10:29 PM TONIGHT
OFFICIALLY)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SO IT BEGINS...THE MUCH
TALKED ABOUT (AND LIKELY WELCOMED) PERIOD OF QUIET AND INCREASINGLY
MILD WEATHER. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY TRENDING TO ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUCH...WITH YESTERDAY`S STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SAFELY TO THE EAST.
PARENT TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY MOVING OUT AS ELONGATED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING BEGINS ITS ADVANCE EAST...WITH NOTED MID AND UPPER HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH FRONTSIDE CAA/ASSOCIATED LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW STOUT H8 INVERSION STILL LEADING TO QUITE
A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME TODAY. NO DOUBT A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR OFF THE TABLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: FOR A CHANGE...MOSTLY
TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT COLD ANOMALIES PASSING
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE BEGINNING STAGES OF WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW SOUTH PROGRESS ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN SAID COLD FRONT AND
OHIO VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE HIGH. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAY START THE MORNING A TOUCH ON THE CLOUDY SIDE
FOR SOME. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MIXING TO EVENTUALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THE OVERCAST. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH UPSTREAM ONTARIO CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CLIPPING NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH DEPARTING TROUGHING. WILL
ACCOUNT SOME FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...TRENDING A TOUCH MORE
CLOUDY EACH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEPARTURE OF COLDEST ANOMALIES AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH (MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT WINDS) AND
CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A FALL OFF WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...WARM AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...

500MB RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL DO MORE DAMAGE TO THE INCOMING TROF THAN THE REVERSE.
OVERALL...THERE ARE FEW WX CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUE MORNING...WITH A 2ND WEAKER HIGH NEAR
THE WEST SHORE OF JAMES BAY. THE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE NE STATES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LAKES REGION EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES...WITH NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-5C RANGE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER.
HOWEVER...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OBLITERATE THIS WEAK MOIST PLUME...
LEAVING A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR HEADS. A TOUCH OF CLOUD COVER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY 1-2C ON WED OVER TUE...AND THERE ARE
FEWER CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER ON WED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER YET...NEAR 70 TO
THE MID 70S. IN BETWEEN...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE
INTERIOR...NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...STEADY AS SHE GOES. THE INCOMING UPPER TROF
ON WED NIGHT/THU WILL BE BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
LAKES REGION. THE TROF WILL LEAVE A PIECE OF ITSELF CUT OFF OVER
IOWA...WITH A MINORED-OUT REMNANT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CONTROL AT LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO
THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... APPEAR VERY
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT/S ABOUT AS EXCITING AS IT GETS...AS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY A 500MB
HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY AT PLN WHERE WINDS MOST LIKELY
TO DECOUPLE AND GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK AROUND MORE
WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
MARINE...MSB






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