Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240200
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT MBL/TVC/PLN
OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST AT TIMES. SOME
-DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. APN WILL
BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM






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