842
FXUS63 KAPX 021724
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
124 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers/few thunderstorms tonight and Friday.

- Smaller chances for precip this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Synopsis/pattern: Surface high pressure extends from western Lk
Superior to southern lower MI. This high slides off to the east
late today and tonight, allowing low pressure in s central
Canada to push another cold/occluded front toward the area.

Forecast: After a (mostly) quiet day today, another round of
showers/storms is expected tonight.

Low clouds and fog are common from the Straits area northward.
DZ has been reported at both CIU and Soo Canada early this
morning, and will add that to the grids thru mid-morning. Mid
and high clouds ahead of our next system will push back into nw
lower MI by late morning, and expand east thru the afternoon.
Generally on the cloudy side in the north, while the se third of
the forecast will see the most sun. But, with a developing se
surface breeze, they will be kept cool by an onshore breeze from
Lk Huron and Saginaw Bay.

A warm front lifts into southern WI and far sw lower MI this
afternoon. MlCape values of up to 500j/kg will be seen, upstream
of our area. Convection could be kicked off upstream, and start
to make inroads into western sections late today. A small chance
for showers late this afternoon/early this evening, west of I-75
in both peninsulas. Perhaps nw lower MI sees a rumble of
thunder.

Max temps from the mid 50s (near Lk Huron) to upper 60s/near 70f
(MBL-TVC-CAD).

500mb ridging shifts east to the eastern lakes, with height
falls and a speed max entering northern WI/upper MI/Superior.
Increasing low-level southerly flow/moist advection ahead of the
occluded front will contribute to precip developing tonight.
MuCape values of 500-750j/kg may scrape by southern portions of
the forecast area. Likely to categorical showers and a few
t-storms are forecast to expand w to e, with parts of ne lower
MI remaining in just chancy pops thru the night. Best shear
remains upstream tonight (behind the occluded front), and
progged shear/instability does not appear to conducive to svr
storms. Small hail may be a possibility with any stronger
t-storms.

Min temps low 40s near Lk Huron to low 50s nw lower MI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

An area of low pressure located northwest of the Great Lakes Region,
will influence sensible weather for most of the long term. As the
low pressure and associated trough swing north of the region, a
myriad of boundaries will be brought near and through northern
Michigan late this week. By the beginning of next week, height rises
will lead to quieter weather before another low pressure works its
way into the region by mid-week.


PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Chances of precipitation and possible thunderstorms this weekend: A
weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and possible
thunderstorms for Friday. A general tenth of an inch of rain can be
expected for most areas, but it cannot be ruled out that some may
receive more if convective thunderstorms develop overhead. More
energy moves over the region for Saturday into Sunday, bringing
another quick shot of light precipitation to the area with embedded
thunderstorms possible. As heights rise going into the new week,
quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the
work week. However, by mid-week, guidance is hinting at active
weather returning to the region, so be sure to check back with the
forecast as we continue to fine tune these details!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue across northern Michigan
through this evening into tonight as clouds begin to spread
overhead. Showers and a few thunderstorms look to work from west to
east later this afternoon and evening, with widespread rain chances
anticipated tonight. CIGs look to degrade from west to east tonight
with aforementioned rain moving in, dropping to MVFR/IFR for a
several hour window late tonight into Friday morning. Drops to MVFR
and even IFR VSBYs will be possible at times with BR/FG Friday
morning as well. Conditions look to improve back to VFR by the end
of the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC