Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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390
FXUS63 KAPX 030237
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
937 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Grungy late-fall/early-winter wx continues. Cool northwest flow
generating light lake effect precip in the usual locales. 00z APX
sounding indicated a slightly higher inversion than this morning
(815mb vs 835mb at 12z), but a warmer airmass below that
inversion. Precip is slowly trending from rain to snow as
diurnal heating is lost. However, this will be a gradual process,
and lower elevation places (especially along Lake MI) may never
fully switch over.

There have been some breaks in the cloud cover, mainly in eastern
upper MI and in southern sections of ne lower. Have made some
adjustments to sky cover grids as the evening has progressed.
Changes are otherwise minimal.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

...Lingering lake effect into Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Pesky stacked low continues to fill
and slide through southern Quebec. Associated short wave trough
and thicker enhanced cloud cover is slipping down through northern
Michigan this afternoon and will slide south and east of the
region this evening. Still some ongoing light NW flow lake effect
precip out there with a hint of some spotty synoptic precip moving
through the region. Mainly light rain/drizzle, although still just
a little mixy in the high terrain.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal. Just ending of the pesky
lake effect precip.

Tonight through Saturday: Minor precip anticipated. As mentioned,
short wave trough will continue to sag south/east of the region
by early evening followed by drier air/modest low-mid level
ridging nudging into the region overnight and through the day
Saturday. Light NW flow lake effect precip will persist tonight,
changing back to mainly snow over the inland and higher terrain
areas. Very minor accumulations anticipated. Further modest
ridging, further drying and weakening flow will further diminish
and possibly end lake effect by the end of the day. Any lake
effect precip on Saturday will once again be mixy and/or change to
all liquid as temps warm into the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday and Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

...Light snow Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Some snow accumulation
late in the weekend into next week.

Short wave ridging builds in Saturday night and holds through
Sunday morning. So despite marginally sufficient over lake
instability (lake/850 mb delta ts in the mid teens), the lack of
cyclonic flow and drier air (mean 850-700 mb rh 40 to 50 percent)
should limit lake effect activity. Consequently, will only have
low chance pops for southwest flow favored areas. A short wave
moving out of the southern Rockies will then track across the
region Sunday afternoon and evening. This will lead to an uptick
in moisture with snow or mixed rain and snow changing to all snow
expected. Model soundings show mainly all snow with the melting
layer confined to under 500 feet AGL. Generally, an inch or two of
accumulation is forecast, especially across the higher terrain.
Ridging/warm air advection should put an end to any lingering
shower activity Monday. Temperatures will remain a little above
average for early December. Highs Sunday in the middle to upper
30s, then the upper 30s to lower 40s Monday. Lows Saturday night
in the middle to upper 20s followed by the upper 20s to lower 30s
Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Snow chances will continue from mid-week through the weekend.
There are a couple of lows to our NW and SE, but they are
currently progged to be a bit far off to have much of an impact on
us, aside from perhaps a bit of enhanced forcing along a front
from the low to our NW. The system to our SE has been a bit
transient from run to run,and a northward adjustment could bring
some heavy snow, so it will be worth monitoring. All that aside,
we will finally see a more prolonged stay of cold H8 air that will
produce some lake effect snow. This will filter in after the
aforementioned systems pass, so the timing is a bit uncertain at
this point, but currently things look favorable for late week
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 642 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Mainly MVFR, at times VFR.

Cool air continues to spill into northern MI, ahead of high
pressure in the central plains. Abundant low-level moisture and
lake instability is resulting in low clouds and lake effect
rain/snow showers. Precip is expected to be less abundant on
Saturday, as somewhat drier air starts to work in from the west.
However, in most places an MVFR cloud deck will persist.

Somewhat brisk nw winds will continue.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Winds/waves will weaken to below small craft advisory criteria by
later this evening. No new marine headlines anticipated through
the weekend.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-
     347>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TBA



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