Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 192112
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE STRATUS HAD FINALLY DISSIPATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BUT REMAINED ACROSS THE MANISTEE...LEELANAU
AND TRAVERSE CITY AREAS. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SO DESPITE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOW CLOUDS STUCK UNDER
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AS THE FLOW BACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT DUE
TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT A WHOLE LOT...AT LEAST YET.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS A MILD AND
UNEVENTFUL ONE AS PACIFIC REGIME CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...AND WILL DO
SO RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE VISITS TO OUR
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS (SHOCKING!) AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST...WITH GROWING
INDICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
PERIOD. INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONGER
TERM SECTION TO FOLLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS.

DETAILS: MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK
AS WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GRABS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES AND CORN BELT. CROSS SECTIONAL MOISTURE ANALYSIS/MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...SUGGESTING STRATUS INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES HOLDING OUT LONGEST
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS REMAINS STUBBORN TO
YIELD. CLOUDS WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH
APPROACHING WEAK WAVE. DEEPEST MOISTURE/"STRONGEST" FORCING FOCUS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST...SUGGESTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET
JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...AS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS WITH DEEP SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE NEXT ECMWF RUN WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE...AS IT HAS BEEN ROCK
STEADY THE LAST TWO RUNS AND THIS IS USUALLY THE TIME IT LIKES TO
LOCK INTO SOMETHING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK WILL DELIVER ALL RAIN
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND NOT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES OF QPF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY
FALLS AS ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT IT WILL
BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL
BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
ONE THING THAT COMES TO MIND IS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS
HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. JUST NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 5C AND
850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -6 TO -8C. SO ALL RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE NEARLY...IF NOT AT ALL...FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF. ONE
THING THAT CAME TO MIND WAS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO JUST HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL BORDERLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO KICK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY REACH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST BELOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S...WHILE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...AND
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE COOLING TREND...DROPPING TO NEAR 20.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
FINALLY REACH NORTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO
MORE WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. PATCHES OF THIS STRATUS CONTINUE
TO FLOAT INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND EXTENT IS RATHER LOW SO EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS CONDITIONS
CHANGE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN


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