Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1245 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WELL AHEAD OF DUAL SHORTWAVES GETTING SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...AS EVIDENT BY LOCAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE CENTERED BELOW H6 (PWAT
VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES). INITIAL WAA WILL LARGELY BE USED TO
SLOWLY SATURATE THIS DRY LAYER. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
AS DESPITE UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...LITTLE EVIDENCE ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
SLOWED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SLOWLY INCREASING OVERCAST AND VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SPREADING A ROUND OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN LIGHT SNOW AND
MIST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INITIAL STRONG SOUTH
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIND SHEAR...WHICH
ESSENTIALLY ENDS AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. SOUTH WINDS VEER RAPIDLY
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB


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