Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 090839
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
439 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WILL SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MORE REMINISCENT OF
FALL/WINTER THAN THE MIDDLE OF JULY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ROTATING
DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES GENERATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN
AND NRN WISCONSIN...EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER FAR
NW WISCONSIN.

TODAY...SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY
FOR NRN MICHIGAN AS POCKET OF +5C TO +7C AIR ROTATES THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
WILL BRING ALONG A SLIGHT UPTICK IN QG-UPWARD SUPPORT AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE CWA...PARTICULARLY AFTER WE ADD A LITTLE
DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE MIX. SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
EXITS EAST BY AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERED DRYING THINGS OUT PRECIP-WISE
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL JUST ENOUGH
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON (ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG) TO
WARRANT KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE "LAKE SHADOW."

TEMPERATURES...AGAIN FAIRLY COOL WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ABOUT THE
BEST WE WILL DO IN MOST AREAS. PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER (NEAR 70) IN
THE SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW.

TONIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW FINALLY LOSES IT/S GRIP ON THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CLEAR OUT SKIES TO A LARGE DEGREE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NOT A HUGE PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...GUIDANCE RH
FORECASTS ARE SLOW IN COMPLETELY DRYING OUT THE LOWER LAYERS
SUGGESTING WE MIGHT HANG ON TO SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SEE. BUT A COOL
NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPS LARGELY FALLING THROUGH THE 40S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S IF WE DO LOSE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  MINIMAL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. LAST VESTIGES
OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE FEATURE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THOUGH MIDDAY LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL
BE DRY...BUT CONVERGENCE AWAY FROM THE LAKES COUPLED WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MIDDAY CU ON
THURSDAY /AN OVERALL PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED/. WITH H8
TEMPS STILL AROUND +8C...HIGHS WILL PEAK FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER
70S. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER H8
AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES /ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT/. THOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES BY FRIDAY NIGHT...
FORCING FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS APPEARS MINIMAL. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
/AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT/ WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE WASHING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
TO THE SOUTH...BEST MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE INHIBITED
BY A WARM FRONT /AND MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION/ OVER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS. UPSHOT...ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. WILL INTRODUCE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEST RETURN
MOISTURE AND PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED WEAKENING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN CONUS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SE TO VICINITY OF
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MONDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS IN
THIS REGARD...BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SAME BASIC IDEA. IN ADDITION
TO STEADILY COOLER AIR ALOFT /DUE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL TROUGHING/ A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND EVOLVING CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A RISK FOR
SPORADIC SHOWERS EACH DAY /THOUGH LIKELY NOT A WASHOUT/.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FALLING
TO BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY FALL TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN LIFT TO A LOW VFR CIG BY AROUND MIDDAY. THE REST
OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES WILL HOLD ON TO LOW VFR CIGS THRU
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THANKS TO A
PERSISTENT/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU WEDNESDAY. W/NW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






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