Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 131528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1028 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Issued at 1028 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Large area of strong arctic high pressure remains centered over
the Upper Mississippi Valley late this morning. Lake aggregate
trough extends west-east thru Upper Michigan...carving a notch in
that strong surface high. Inversion heights around 3-4 kft
combined with moisture below that inversion and lake troughing
continue to produce bands of lake effect snow showers streaming
into our typical snowbelt areas of Eastern Upper and NW/North
Central Lower Michigan. Snow intensity is light given overall
pattern of strengthening subsidence...low inversion heights and
moisture limited to below that inversion. Most locations will see
well under an inch of new snow throughout the day...except around
an inch near Whitefish point. Temps will remain rather cold
today...with highs only in the teens most areas.


.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Quiet stretch of weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Split mid/upper level flow pattern
over the western CONUS this morning with a cutoff low feature
rolling down the CA coastline. Flow recombines into a more zonal
flow across the central and eastern CONUS with broad ridging and
very warm air across Florida/Gulf of Mexico and shortwave
troughing swinging through eastern Canada. Strong cold front and a
very tight temperature gradient stretches through the Appalachians
into the lower Mississippi River Valley.

Meanwhile, colder air has once again dipped into the northern
plains and Great Lakes region, driven southward by strong surface
high pressure building into the upper midwest. Modest cyclonic
flow and lake aggregate troughing remains over the western Great
Lakes and we do have some modest lake effect ongoing. A bit more
vigorous lake snows are occurring of Lake Superior with the
coldest air and longer fetches, ANJ has been down to 3/4SM in snow
at times. Just light snow showers/flurries for northern lower

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal for the next few days.
Aforementioned surface high pressure will build overhead by late
afternoon into the evening. Modest lake effect snows will continue
with light accumulations in eastern upper Michigan. Lake effect
will largely diminish through this afternoon and tonight as
strong high/subsidence/shrinking inversions and backing/weakening
flow take their toll. But, as is usually the case, suspect there
will be lingering nuisance lake snow showers/flurries along the
Lake Michigan shoreline up into the straits even through tonight,
as winds continue to back SW.

Meanwhile. northern stream shortwave still expected to swing
through central/eastern Canada later tonight into Saturday with a
weak-ish surface reflection/trough sliding across Ontario and
skirting the northern lakes region. Pulse of modest warm
advection forcing could push some light snow/flurries into the
region toward morning. But overall precip chances are looking
slim at this point.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Warming trend next week with mixed precipitation possible...

The pattern over the next week will feature a slow retreat of the
arctic air this weekend with warming aloft for a majority of next
week. In addition, low pressure moving up from the south early in
the week has the potential to produce freezing rain issues, mainly
Monday night. The main forecast concerns revolve around how fast it
will warm up over the next few days as well as the general details
of the system early next week.

Saturday into Sunday...High pressure regains control of the weather
over the weekend. Slow warming aloft will continue to decrease over
lake instability. It will be marginally cold enough Saturday morning
for a few lake effect flurries in west southwest flow favored areas.
Otherwise, drier air will lead to increasing sunshine with mostly
sunny skies Sunday. Highs Saturday in the middle to upper 20s and
Sunday in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows Saturday pretty cold due
to diminishing winds, mostly clear skies and a decent snow pack.
Lowered mins to zero to five above in the normally colder low lying
spots like Grayling, Roscommon, Atlanta, Mio, Indian River etc with
single digits to the middle teens elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Monday into Tuesday...Here we go with the potentially messy weather.
Extended models remain in general agreement that low pressure tracks
by to our west drawing much milder air northward into northern
Michigan. Surface temperatures look to be cold enough for the
possibility of freezing rain Monday night into early Tuesday (though
the more aggressive ECMWF would have a shorter period of freezing
rain as it has rising temperatures to above freezing Monday night).
Either way with most surrounding offices (GRR, GRB and MQT) all
carrying freezing rain, will also include it in our forecast as well
for consistency sake (and because it`s definitely a possibility)
Monday night. Precipitation is then expected to become all rain
Tuesday as surface temperatures continue to warm well into the 30s
to the middle 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Overall a nearly zonal flow aloft with
continued mild air aloft should lead to no precipitation and
unseasonably warm temperatures with highs of well into the 30s to
the middle 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 619 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

MVFR lake clouds and light snow showers/flurries continue to
shroud northern lower Michigan this morning, and will persist for
much of today. APN will remain largely VFR. Lake clouds will thin
out tonight with all terminal sites becoming VFR.


Issued at 619 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Winds will diminish through the day. But there will be a few more
hours of small craft advisory conditions for some marine zones
this morning. Light winds/waves tonight, but southwest winds
return on Saturday and a few nearshore zones may need small craft


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EST today for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EST today for LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EST today for LSZ321-322.


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