Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 230345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1027MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA/
MISSOURI BORDER AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LYING BETWEEN A POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND A
SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MICHIGAN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C APPROACHING LAKE WINNIPEG.  POCKET OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AROUND EAST SIDE OF THE MIDWEST
SURFACE HIGH...APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.30 INCH.  THIN PATCH OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS HAS
RENDERED SKIES OVERCAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO
THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST CLIPPING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST.
MARY`S RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LOW
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY CLIP FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL THOUGH AT LEAST
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SLACK OFF
TONIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS UNTIL LATE).  CURRENT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S)...SO SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG IF WINDS DROP
OFF.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A HINT OF
RESIDUAL H8-H7 MOISTURE TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.  WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE DWPTS.  A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES.  IT MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AMBIENT AIR MASS...NO PRECIPITATION.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FOLD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER /HIGHS LOWER-MID 70S/.  NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
/40S TO LOWER 50S/ BUT NO THREAT OF ANY FROST.

NEXT WEEK:  WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING WIDESPREAD/.  LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALSO TRANSITION OUR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS /AT LEAST BRIEFLY/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FROM
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTH ON LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE AS WELL AS ON
WHITEFISH BAY.  SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB





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