Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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371
FXUS63 KAPX 081504
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1004 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINING
BASICALLY PCPN FREE...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN CENTERED RIGHT
OVER NRN MI THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA SPINNING AROUND NRN MI AND CONFINED TO
WISCONSIN...WRN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE THUMB. HOWEVER EXPECT PCPN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC AND UPPER
LOWS PUSH EAST OF THE REGION.

VIS SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NRN MI...WHILE OVC LOW CLOUD DECK CONTS TO SPIN AROUND THE
PIVOT POINT OF NRN MI THIS MORNING. THESE BREAKS AND SOME SUN HAVE
HELPED CLEAR UP FOG AND VSBY ACROSS NRN MI.

OVERALL CURRENT FCST TREND IS IN LINE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED YET THIS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



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