Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261807
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
107 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR STRETCHES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
DOWN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING SSE THROUGH MINNESOTA ALONG
WITH A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW SLIDING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN. HERE AT
HOME...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OFF LAKE HURON INTO PARTS OF NE LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MID-HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW. BUT
OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN AFTER A CLEAR/COLD START TO THE
DAY.

REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING...AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED
LIGHT SNOWFALL ESSENTIALLY MOVES SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN INTO
ILLINOIS...WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT DOES. STILL APPEARS THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS THIS CWA WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES SKIRTING THROUGH THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GOING OVER PARTS OF NE LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
GOING FORECASTS IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...EXCEPT HAVE STRETCHED
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF HURON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVEN INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. WEAK UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
DOES SO. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
CURRENTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IMPACTING MINNESOTA WILL STEADILY FALL
APART WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS AS THE FRONT ITSELF WASHES OUT...
LEAVING OUR CWA MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE APPROACHING DYING FRONT. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. WILL LEAVE SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS THE ERN EDGE OF THE DIMINISHING LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THIS FRONT JUST BARELY REACHES THIS AREA. DESPITE THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION THANKS
TO SOME LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH OVERALL
VERY DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

AFTER A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA
EXPERIENCING EARLY MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO (SOME PLACES WELL BELOW
ZERO)...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS. STAY WARM!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
MAP AS THE FORECAST PERIOD OPENS TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS LOW...
COMBINED WITH ROBUST 1035 MB HIGH OVER MARITIME CANADA WILL
EFFECTIVELY ACT AS A BRICK WALL IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO MAKE A RUN AT THIS BLOCK WILL
PRETTY MUCH HAVE COMPLETED ITS VANISHING ACT BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN IT/S WAKE AND MAINTAINING
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE FALLS APART UPON
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY WITH DEEP DRY WEDGE ON
WESTERN FLANK OF NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE LOOKING TO ENSURE AMPLE
SUN FOR MANY LOCATIONS SAVE NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE OVER-LAKE
TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS
AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES.  WHILE FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL BACK
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
/AND HELP TO END THE LAKE HURON CLOUDINESS/ TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL
COMMENCE AND BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR ALL
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST SPOTS
/MOST SUN OVER NORTHEAST LOWER/.  BAND OF WAA/FGEN FORCING SNOWFALL
WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE EASTERN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AS GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE SPED
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL UP JUST A TAD. T9S WARM FROM AROUND -12C
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -7C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY REBOUND TO NEAR 30F /DESPITE THE
CLOUDS/ ON WEDNESDAY. THE RATE OF INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF WE SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
LOCATION SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. GUIDANCE SPREAD IS
ALMOST 20F FROM THE WARMER MAV/MET TO THE COLD EXPERIMENTAL EC
MOS. WILL HEDGE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR QUICK COOLING WITH ANY AMOUNT OF CLEARING...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME SPOTS /MAYBE NE LOWER?/ GO EVEN COLDER
THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE 4AM FORECAST.

AS THE EAST COAST LOW PULLS NORTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR WILL OPEN FOR A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF CANADA AND
TEAM UP WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE TO INCITE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THIS LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  280-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT /PWATS RISING TO NEAR
0.5"/...MODEST -DIVQ AND A WEAKLY COUPLED JET SIGNATURE SHOULD ALLOW
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW ALONG FGEN AXIS TO EXPAND SOUTH AS LLEVELS
SATURATE...RESULTING IN SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
CWA BY DAYBREAK.  A WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOW PRECEDING A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.

PATTERN: REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH DOWNSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT.  THE RIDGE-
TROUGH SETUP HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY STABLE OVER THE PAST MONTH AND
THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL THEREFORE BE A
RESULT OF SHORTWAVES RE-ORIENTING THIS RIDGE-TROUGH SETUP...ONE ON
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.

QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENT THAT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING.  WITH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR
ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAVORABLE FORCING...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LIMITED.  TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF IMPACT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY IF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES/DEVELOPS QUICKLY ENOUGH. FORESEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL HEADLINES AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...WITH RENEWED COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS
MODEST AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER CLIPPER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH RENEWED
SNOW CHANCES FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO END
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE NRN MICHIGANS WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION...EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/LAKE CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO THE APN AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY DRAGGING DRIER AIR DOWN
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ADAM


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