Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 041910
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR



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