Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1031 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Issued at 1029 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Quiet day across the northwoods as surface high pressure dominates
the weather. Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon,
particularly across eastern upper Michigan. May even see a flurry or
two reach the surface, but definitely no big deal for sure. Morning
sunshine has already done a number on surface temperatures, with a
good 10 to 15 degree response from the early morning readings.
This trend will continue, enhanced some by increasing southerly
flow. Afternoon readings ranging from the lower 30s eastern upper
(more cloud cover) to lower and middle 40s along and south of M-72
still appear on target.


.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

...Overall quiet weather thru tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface ridge axis continues to build
into the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Great
Lakes region early this the clipper system exits
eastward thru Quebec. Last vestiges of the trough axis from this
system produced a few areas of light snow across portions of our
CWA...but is now moving east out of our area with the trough axis.
Remnants of this light precip should be gone within the next couple
of hours...leaving all of Michigan high and dry for today and this
evening as the ridge axis slides thru our state. Low level flow will
shift to the south today on the backside of the ridge axis...marking
the beginning of low level WAA. High temps this afternoon will range
from the lower 30s across Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 40s
across our southern CWA.

Chances of precip will begin to increase late tonight in advance of
low pressure developing over the Central Plains and moving NE toward
the Great Lakes region. WAA and moisture advection will strengthen
late tonight ahead of this system...resulting in the potential for
mixed precip during the onset. At this point...still appears any
chances of precip will hold off until after 09z and will likely
remain confined to our far SW CWA thru 12Z. Again...will likely see
a mix of precip types during the onset...which will quickly change
over to plain rain on Tuesday as the above freezing surface based
warm layer surges northward thru our CWA. Low temps tonight will
range from the mid 20s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid 30s
across our SW CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

..Milder then colder then milder once again...

Our mild but changeable winter will continue over the next several
days. Forecast concerns revolve around if precipitation will start
off as snow Tuesday and end up as snow Wednesday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Low pressure emerges out of the central
Plains and heads toward the northern Great Lakes. Models have more
or less settled on a track across northern Lower with lots of mild
air surging north. This would likely lead to a mostly rain solution,
though a short period of snow is initially possible Tuesday morning.
Highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s and lows in the 30s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Colder air bleeds into the region.
It looks like a race between how quickly the thermal column cools
off and how long moisture holds on behind the departing area of low
pressure. Latest trends indicate that the window for these two
factors to line up is closing. There still appears to be time for a
change over to all snow but it may end up not being a whole lot.
However, falling temperatures to just below the freezing mark may
lead to icy spots on area roadways. It`s still a couple of days out
so we can hammer out the details later. Highs mainly in the 30s to
lower 40s. Lows in the teens to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

...Turning colder with some lake effect then warming back up...

Thursday through Sunday...Lake effect snow showers still look likely
in nw or nnw flow favored areas for Thursday and Friday as colder
air temporarily takes hold. Milder air then surges back in for the
weekend, possibly leading to warm air advection driven snow showers
Friday night then rain or snow showers Saturday. Sunday at this
point looks mainly dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Surface ridge axis will slide over Michigan this morning and push
east of our state this afternoon. Southern flow will kick in on
the backside of the ridge axis this afternoon and tonight...but
will generally remain below 10 kts thru the forecast period.
Overall conditions will remain VFR thru tonight. Chances of mixed
precip will begin to increase around MBL very late tonight...but
the chance is too small to include in the TAF for now.


Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria across all nearshore
areas today and tonight as the surface ridge axis slides overhead
and then pushes east of Michigan. Conditions will increase to SCA
criteria on Tuesday as WAA strengthens ahead of our next low
pressure system. Dry conditions are expected today into this
evening...with increasing chances of mixed precip beginning late
tonight and continuing thru Tuesday.




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