Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 040120
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE NRN
LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST REGION THIS EVENING. COMPACT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER NOTED
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...TROUGH AXIS/ATTENDING
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SFC LOW OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN.

NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
STEADILY SLIPPING INTO THE NRN/WRN REACHES OF THE CWA OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. LOOKING A BIT MORE OMINOUS ON RADAR THAN IN
REALITY AS PRECIP HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT THUS FAR...THANKS TO
SOME FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY THUNDER
OF NOTE THUS FAR HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NW/WRN WISCONSIN AND IN
THE WESTERN U.P...ALONG THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS...AND
WHERE WE/VE HAD SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY BEHIND THE MAIN
CLOUD SHIELD.

REST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ATTENDING SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWING/
STALLING A BIT OVER THE EASTERN LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. BATCH OF
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND CONTINUE TO SWING INTO THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GETTING HUNG UP ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. GOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS
THAT IDEA PRETTY WELL...WITH ONLY COSMETIC TWEAKS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT.

THUNDER CHANCES...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE ONLY THUNDER OF NOTE
HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD AND ALONG DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHERE WE/VE SEEN SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST WE SEE A NARROW AXIS OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
IN THE ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH WEAKER QG-ASCENT IN OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS (AS COMPARED TO ACROSS WISCONSIN)...I AM HAVING
SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT TSTM CHANCES. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT BECOMES
OF THAT SECONDARY THIN LINE OF CONVECTION STILL MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT I MAY END UP YANKING TSTM CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. NO SEVERE.

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A PRETTY
POTENT SHORTWAVE PLOWING THROUGH MN/WI. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS
NEAR JAMES BAY WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIGHT NOW....THERE IS JUST A
SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MIXED
IN WITH SOME VIRGA. 12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS WHY...WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY IS SURGING THROUGH MN/WI
TODAY...HELPING SPEED UP THE FRONT. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...THE
FRONT WILL BE MORE SLOW TO ARRIVE...AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEGATIVELY
TILTS BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER...AND TONIGHT FOR NRN
LOWER. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OUT ACROSS WI...BUT THERE IS
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA...AND HINT AT SOME LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER
DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH THE OBVIOUS CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT.
STILL EXPECTING A BAND OF RAIN TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...AND
ACTUALLY HOLD FOR AWHILE AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTS AND
ULTIMATELY CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL PIVOT THE FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TIME. INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS IS
RATHER STRONG...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 7.5C/KM. THUS...A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.

LOWS TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...DOWN TO THE LOWER
40S IN EASTERN UPPER WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER...CLOSER TO SAG BAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH
INITIAL DEEP/COLD TROUGHING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY WARMING CONDITIONS AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD TO END THE WEEK. ABOVE PROCESS SIMPLY PART OF MUCH BIGGER
NOAM UPPER LEVEL CHANGES...WITH CURRENT STOUT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN AND HEADING EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS
DEEP TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST (RESPONSIBLE FOR PATTERN
PROGRESSION) AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RIPS ACROSS CANADA (RESPONSIBLE
FOR SQUASHING NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE AXIS). SO...WHILE MIDWEEK
WEATHER LOOKS JUST DOWNRIGHT UNPLEASANT...WITH LINGERING RAINS AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS ANYTHING
BUT...WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND DOWNRIGHT MILD WEATHER BY FRIDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING LINGERING RAIN CONCERNS WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: HARD TO MAKE WEDNESDAY SOUND PLEASANT AT ALL...WITH GUSTY
NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS AND POCKETS OF RAIN ON NORTH SIDE OF
DEEPENING MID AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR SOUTH. STILL
APPEARS BEST FORCING/DEEPER LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE
(ALTHOUGH APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL). NOT
EXPECTING A TON OF RAIN...BUT COULD SEE SOME AREAS PUSH ANOTHER
TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH. DAMPNESS WILL ONLY ADD TO ALREADY COLD
CONDITIONS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF EARLY MAY CAA HELPING KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA STUCK IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. AND...JUST TO ADD
TO THE UNPLEASANT FEEL...GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL DEFINITELY
RESULT IN SOME LOWER WIND CHILL READINGS.

WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS...STRONGEST FORCING TIED TO CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW PULLS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE
FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...CLOUD TRENDS DEFINITELY NOT AS EASY...WITH
STRONG GUIDANCE EVIDENCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY SCOURING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND CLOUD
COVERAGE UPWARD...AND REALLY STARTING TO FEEL MUCH OF THURSDAY MAY
END UP MORE CLOUDY THAN ANYTHING ELSE. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST READINGS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S AWAY FORM THE BIG WATERS. NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON THIS IDEA GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF SLOWLY
MEANDERING EAST COAST CUT-OFF LOW. THIS PERIOD LOOKS MUCH MORE
CLEAR/SUNNY. WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN AND SUN WILL TAKE THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY LIKELY BREAKING
70 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER. WEAK FLOW DOES
LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF SOME GOOD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...DEFINITELY
KEEPING COMMUNITIES NEAR THE BIG WATERS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AFTER A RATHER PICTURE PERFECT FRIDAY...CHANGES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO PARTS OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LITTLE OF CONSEQUENCE TO END
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DRIVES
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST ARRIVES TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAMPS UP
OVER THE PLAINS...PROVIDING ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. WITH 6-7 DAYS UNTIL ARRIVAL...THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST IN TERMS OF TIMING...PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND THUNDER CHANCES...
BUT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT-TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
NRN MICHIGAN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FOR ERN UPPER TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR MANY EAST OF I-75 IN NRN LOWER. POST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS BACK NEAR NORMAL FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF MORE MILD AIR RETURNS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH NRN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE SLOWING/STALLING A BIT
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH LOWERING CIGS...WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY START OUT VFR AT THE TERMINAL SITES
THIS EVENING WHILE RAINFALL SLOWLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. BUT
AFTER FROPA AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR SLIPS INTO THE
REGION...CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
LATER OVERNIGHT/ EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL END AND CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH
MVFR...POSSIBLE VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TONIGHT. SW WINDS AND STABILITY OVER THE LAKES
WILL PREVENT ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS UNTIL TONIGHT AS THE COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...MSB/GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...DICKSON



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